USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 145.69 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 145.07 High Jun 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 144.20 High Jul 7
- RES 1: 143.55 High Aug 1
- PRICE: 143.38 @ 16:16 BST Aug 2
- SUP 1: 141.13/140.38 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 138.07 Low Jul 28
- SUP 3: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support
- SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17
USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair traded higher yesterday. Price is through 143.22, 76.4% of the Jun 30 - Jul 14 downleg. The break strengthens current bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher. The focus is on 144.20 next, the Jul 7 high, and key resistance at 145.07, the Jun 30 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 138.07, the Jul 28 low.
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EURGBP TECHS: Primary Trend Direction Remains Down
- RES 4: 0.8786 Trendline resistance drawn from the Feb 3 high
- RES 3: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
- RES 2: 0.8719 High May 23
- RES 1: 0.8658 High Jun 28 and a short-term bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8597 @ 16:06 BST Jul 3
- SUP 1: 0.8576/36 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 23
- SUP 2: 0.8518 Low Jun 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8502 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
The primary trend direction in EURGBP is down and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 0.8658, the Jun 28 high. A break of this level would resume the recent uptrend and signal scope for a climb towards 0.8719, the May 23 high. On the downside, a deeper pullback would instead expose the bear trigger at 0.8518, where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, Late Sep'23 2Y Buy
- +5,000 TUU3 101-18.25, buy through 101-18 post-time offer at 1327:29ET
US TSYS: Rates Back Near Lows Despite Weaker ISMs
- Treasury futures finishing the shortened pre-holiday session at/near lows, accounts scaling back support despite early session data showed disinflationary signs.
- Treasury futures extend highs slightly after S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI comes out as expected at 46.3, not a large reaction.
- Treasury futures extended highs after June ISM Manufacturing falls to 46.0 vs. 46.9 est (47.2 prior) the lowest since May 2020. Prices paid at 41.8 lower than exp 44.2, ISM Employment at 48.1 lower than expected 51.4. Meanwhile, Construction Spending MoM lower than expected at +0.9% vs. 1.2% est.
- Front month 10Y futures marked 112-17.5 high (+9) before falling back to111-29.5 after the early close. Initial technical resistance at 112-21 Jun 22 low, 113-18 June 15 High key resistance.
- Later in the week, FOMC minutes for the June meeting are released at 1400ET Wednesday, while the latest employment data is released this Friday at 0830ET, current mean est at 225k vs. 339k prior.
