EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 148.40 High Oct 21 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 147.75 High Oct 31
- RES 2: 147.10 High Nov 9
- RES 1: 146.73 High Dec 15
- PRICE: 146.27 @ 20:44 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 144.31/143.50 Low Dec 15 / 14
- SUP 2: 143.10 Low Dec 6
- SUP 3: 140.77 Low Dec 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 bull leg
EURJPY resumed its uptrend Thursday and traded to fresh highs for the week. The move higher reinforces the bullish importance of the recent trendline break - the trendline is drawn from the Oct 21 high and was breached on Dec 12. Resistance at 146.14, the Nov 23 high has been pierced and this signals potential for a climb towards 147.75, the Oct 31 high. Initial firm support lies at 143.50, the Dec 15 low.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Uptrend Extends
- RES 4: 0.6956 High Aug 30
- RES 3: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
- RES 2: 0.6800 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 0.6797 High Nov 15
- PRICE: 0.6777 @ 16:10 GMT Nov 15
- SUP 1: 0.6578 Low Nov 11
- SUP 2: 0.6529/0.6482 50-day EMA / 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
- SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support
AUDUSD remains firm and continues to climb. This strengthens and reinforces current bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension of the rally that started mid-October. The pair has topped 0.6768, 61.8% of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg. The break here opens the 0.6800 handle. Firm short-term support has been defined at 0.6387, last Thursday’s low. Initial support lies at 0.6578, the Nov 11 low.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Eurodollar/Treasury Option Roundup
Variety of trades made up for modest overall option volumes Tuesday, better put volumes in SOFR options on net with early buys evaporating as underlying climbed post-PPI; Tsy options saw better call interest overall. Highlight Trades include:
- SOFR Options:
- -5,000 SFRU3 94.00 puts, 6.0 vs. 95.36/0.08%
- +3,000 SFRM3 95.00 straddles 65-65.5
- +2,500 SFRH3 94.37/94.50/94.75 put flys, 2.5
- Block, total 8,000 SFRF 94.75/95.00/95.25 put flys, 6.0 ref 95.15
- 2,000 SFRZ2 96.75 calls, cab
- 4,000 SFRZ2 94.25 puts, ref 95.645
- Block, 4,000 SFRZ2 95.56/95.68 call spds, 0.75 ref 95.48
- Eurodollar Options:
- +15,000 EDU3 95.12 calls 3.5 over SFRU3 95.37 calls, 3.5
- Treasury Options:
- +3,500 TYZ 113.5 calls, 17 vs. 112-20.5/0.28%
- -3,000 TYH 113 straddles, 333-334
- -3,500 TYF 113.114.5 2x3 call spds 41-40
- +8,000 TYZ2 113 calls, 27-28 vs. 112-23
- +4,800 TYG 115/118 call spds, 34 vs. 112-25.
US: Port Of LA Sees Lowest October Cargoes Since 2009
- Bloomberg reports Gene Seroka saying in a virtual briefing that the Port of LA saw cargo volumes fall for a third straight month in Oct, to their lowest since mid’20 or down 45% Y/Y for the quietest October since 2009.
- Some of the reduction is down to shippers diverting cargo to the Atlantic Coast following labour disputes with West Coast dockworkers, but it can also be a sign of fading pressures on goods supply chains as consumers continue to switch back to services.
- This rotation is a theme playing out in CPI data with core goods seeing rare deflation on the month in October whilst service price inflation remained very strong.
- However, the outright weakness in shipping volumes could also be a sign of fading demand, although the Port of NY and New Jersey has yet to release data for October to see if there has been an offsetting increase.
Source: Bloomberg
