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Aug-12 09:00

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Jul-13 09:00

Jul-13 09:00

EUROZONE MAY IP +0.8% M/M, +1.6% Y/Y (FCST +0.3%); APR -2.5%r Y/Y

Industrial production saw an optimistic rebound in the Eurozone May print, expanding at 1.6% y/y, following the downwards revised -2.5% y/y contraction recorded in April. This is a significant beat of the modest +0.3% m/m and y/y improvement anticipated.
Non-durable consumer goods production increased 2.7% m/m, followed by capital goods by 2.5% m/m and durables by 1.4% m/m.
Energy production accounted for the key downwards driver, falling 3.3% m/m in May.
The May upswing is largely a recalibration following the shock of the onset of the Ukraine war, as supply chains required considerable adjustment following sanctions on Russian trade. The outlook for upcoming months looks less optimistic when taking into account the drop-off in new orders recorded in recent manufacturing PMIs.

Jul-13 08:42

SocGen add their name to the list of those looking for further EUR weakness in the coming months. They write that there’s lots of room for more EUR shorts with recession fears and the prospect of ECB paralysis both key drivers.
As such, they recommend expressing a EUR short via the purchase of EUR/USD 0.98 2 month puts, while selling 0.96 2m puts with a 0.94 knock-in. They note that this structure is an ‘appearing' put spread and costs only 0.07% more than a vanilla 0.98/0.96 put spread, but with a more attractive pay-off profile.
The structure benefits the most from spot trading between 0.94 and 0.96 in two months and if the barrier is hit, the pay-off becomes a standard put spread 0.98/0.96, which still delivers 4.4 times the premium paid if the spot is below 0.96 at expiry.

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