EU CREDIT UPDATE: Books Into Pricing

Spain, Belgium, Finland and Italy are still due to sell bills this week, while Germany and France have already come to the market. We expect issuance to be E27.7bln in first round operations, down from E29.4bln last week.

• This morning, Spain will look to come to the market with a combined E2.5-3.5bln of the 3-month Jun 5, 2026 letras and the 9-month Dec 4, 2026 letras
• Also this morning, Belgium will look to sell a combined E3.0-3.4bln of the 3-month Jun 11, 2026 TC and the 12-month Mar 11, 2027 TC.
• Today, Finland will look to issue up to a combined E2.0bln of the 8-month Nov 13, 2026 RFTB and the new 11-month Feb 15, 2027 RFTB.
• To conclude the week tomorrow morning, Italy will look to sell E8.0bln of the new 12-month Mar 12, 2027 BOT.

• RES 4: 1.3712 High Feb 11     
• RES 3: 1.3662 High Feb 16  
• RES 2: 1.3575 High Feb 26 and a key S/T resistance 
• RES 1: 1.3494 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3448 @ 06:33 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 1.3253 Low Mar 03 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3212 76.4% retracement of the Nov 4 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3180 Low Dec 2 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.3125 Low Nov 26 ‘25   

The short-term trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and gains are considered corrective - for now. The recent move down resulted in a breach of 1.3331, the Jan 19 low and a key support. This break strengthens a bear theme and signals scope for an extension towards 1.3212, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3575, the Feb 26 high, where a breach would signal a possible reversal.

• RES 4: 117.650 High Mar 3     
• RES 3: 117.470 High Mar 4    
• RES 2: 117.264 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 116.920 High Mar 9
• PRICE: 116.760 @ 06:12 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 116.330/115.580 Low Mar 6 / 9  
• SUP 2: 115.508 1.382 proj of the Mar 2 - 3 - 4 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.340 1.500 proj of the Mar 2 - 3 - 4 price swing   
• SUP 4: 115.000 Round number support 

A volatile bearish condition in Bobl futures remains intact. The sharp recovery from Monday’s low is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind and for now the move higher appears corrective. A resumption of the downtrend would signal scope for an extension towards 115.508 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 117.264, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal a possible reversal.