BTP: Block trade
Aug-25 08:16
BTP Block trade, suggest buyer
- IKU2 1.5k at 122.15
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EGBS: GS revise BTP-Bund spread forecasts
Jul-26 08:15
- "We see multiple headwinds for BTPs. Under the combined effect of rising political uncertainty and a potential loss of policy continuity at a critical juncture, we revise our 10y BTP-bund target to 250bp (from 200bp before) at year-end."
- "Due to the (political) nature of the recent BTP-bund spread widening, we believe there is a high hurdle for the ECB to activate support through its freshly-announced TPI. This suggests to us that the ECB's resolve to normalize policy settings could be tested by markets."
- "With ongoing concerns of energy supply disruptions and rising sovereign stress, we see clear downside risks to our 10y bund yield forecasts of 2% at year-end."
ITALY: Centre-Right Coalition Leads In All Election Scenarios: Poll
Jul-26 08:10
The conservative coalition of the nationalist Brothers of Italy (FdI), populist League (Lega) and centre-right Forza Italia (FI) is on course to win comfortable majorities in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate according to the latest seat projection polling from Agenzia Quorum/YouTrend.
- In the each of the hypothetical scenarios offered - centre-left coalition (CSX) teams up with centrist parties (CX), centre-left coalition runs alone, and centre-left runs with 5-Star Movement (M5S) - the centre-right coalition (CDX) wins more than 200 seats in the Chamber and more than 100 in the Senate, guaranteeing a majority under the new reduced seat totals.
- Scenario A (centre-left with centrists): CDX: C 222-242 / S 109-129, CSX + CX: C 116-136 / S 50-70, M5S: C 26-36 / S 9-19, SVP: C 2-3 / S 2-3
- Scenario B (centre-left alone): CDX: C 240-260 / S 116-136, CSX: C 73-93 / S 32-52, CX: C 15-25 / S 5-10, M5S: C 23-33 / S 10-20, SVP: C 2-3/ S 2-3
- Scenario C (centre-left with M5S): CDX: C 234-235 / S 116-136, CSX + M5S: C 105-125 / S 44-64CX: C 20-30 / S 5-15SVP: C 2-3 / S 2-3. AgenziaQuorum / YouTrend, fieldwork July 25 2022
Election scheduled to take place 25 September. Snap vote comes after the collapse of the broad governing coalition of technocrat PM Mario Draghi last week.
AUD: AUDNZD extends gains
Jul-26 07:52
- AUD is still lagging against the Dollar, but the currency extends gains versus the EUR, JPY, and NZD.
- AUDNZD is seeing some overnight continuation, helped by the bounce in Iron Ore, with the pair breaking above yesterday's high, and highest since the 16th June.
- Further upside continuation will eye 1.1148 next, now at 1.1133.
