US CREDIT UPDATE: Blackrock (BLK): Q4’25 Results
Blackrock: Q4’25 Results
(BLK; Aa3/AA-/NR)
Slight credit positive. Beat BBG consensus estimates. Revenues/fees higher in part due to acquisitions. AUM up larger than expected due to strong inflows, with equities and ETFs leading the way. Unadjusted margin lower on expenses related to Global Infrastructure acquisition.
• Total revenues were $7.00n, better than BBG consensus of $6.78b and up 23% YOY due in part to GIP and HPS acquisitions.
• Net inflows during the quarter of $342b. FY25 inflows of $698b. Resulted in a Q4 12% organic fee increase and 9% yearly increase.
• Americas flows accounted for 71%. APAC sales declined.
• In terms of product areas, ETFs accounted for 68% of flows, Retail for 31% and Instl 1%.
• By asset class Equity had $126b in inflows, Fixed Income had $84b, Multi-asset had $37b, Alts had $16b and Crncy/Commod had $5b.
• AUM grew by 22% YOY to $14.04T.
• Adjusted operating margin was 45.0%, down slightly from last year’s 45.5%. Unadjusted operating margin was 23.7%, down from 36.6% last year. Some of the decrease was due to higher comp costs and charitable donations, but most was due to payouts related to the GIP acquisition.
• Net Income of $2.18b was better than consensus of $2.06b and up 16% YOY.
• Adj EPS of $13.16/sh was ahead of consensus of $12.28/sh and up 10% YOY.
• BLK announced a 10% increase of its dividend to $5.73/sh
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FOREX: Fresh Pullback DXY Lows as Payrolls Data Approaches
- The recent bearish dollar theme is persisting Tuesday, with the dollar index now 0.2% in the red and extending to fresh pullback lows in recent trade. Gains for GBP continue to standout in G10 as the market assesses the UK labour market data and the dimming prospects of easy policy through 2026.
- Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains well bid amid a softer risk backdrop overnight and potential position squaring ahead of the BOJ’s expected hike on Friday. Despite the underlying bullish theme for USDJPY, support at 154.00, the 50-day EMA, remains exposed. A clear breach of the recent lows at 154.35 and this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement.
- After flash Eurozone PMIs having little net impact on EURUSD this morning, the pair has edged to 1.1770, marking the highest level since October 01. With multiple tier-one data releases from the US upcoming, as well as the ECB decision Thursday, market attention will be firmly on the pair as 1.1779 resistance beckons. Above here, 1.1848 is a notable chart point, the Sep 18 high.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary -Bear Threat In Bunds Still Present
- In the FI space, Bund futures remain in consolidation mode. A bear-mode cycle is intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 127.00 handle. Key short-term resistance is 128.75, the Dec 3 high. Note that the contract is oversold. A stronger corrective bounce would allow this oversold condition to unwind. The price pattern on Dec 10 is a doji candle - a short-term reversal signal. Initial resistance is 128.08, The Dec 8 high.
- Recent activity in Gilt futures highlights 90.53, the Nov 25 / 26 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A breach of 90.53 would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and bear trigger. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains and a breach of 91.93, would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high.
EQUITY OPTIONS: Large Estoxx Options
- SX5E (19th June) 5200p, trades 107 in 32k.
- SX5E (19th June) 4800p, trades 60 in 75k.
- SX5E (19th June) 6200c, trades 63 in 27k.
