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Sep-10 14:54

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Historical bullets

FOREX: USD's Shallow Bounce Persists Through London Close

Aug-11 14:53
  • Greenback pressed higher still in recent trade, resulting in a steeper pullback for EUR/USD here, which shows through the Thursday low of 1.1611. Decent pick up in activity on the latest leg lower, however overall volumes are still well below average for this time of day - as has been the theme across the session so far.
  • USD move here not headline driven (decision to deploy National Guard in Washington DC was very much expected) and is not being mirrored in cross-markets: both equities and the front-end of the US curve look relatively stable in comparison.
  • Instead, the strength in the USD here likely the extended position-squaring after the soft NFP print earlier this month (USD Index still 1.4% below pre-NFP levels), and ahead of tomorrow's CPI print - the next data input for the September FOMC decision.
  • Outside of the EUR, USD gains seemingly have less conviction: GBP/USD has reversed lower after a failed test on the 50-dma of 1.3502, and further weakness here will open 1.3398 support (23.6% retracement for the upleg off the 1.3142 low) ahead of the more notable level at 1.3310. Below here, the bounce will look to have concluded, and a further fade becomes more likely. Tomorrow's wages and unemployment numbers could prove key this week.

US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: Secured Rates Steady, Could Pick Up Later This Week

Aug-11 14:45

Secured rates were steady Friday, with SOFR remaining at 4.35%. 

  • Rates are expected to print the same or perhaps slightly lower Monday. However pressure could pick up later in the week on Treasury auction settlements. These include $55B in net cash raised by bills on Tuesday and a further $42B on Thursday, followed by $35B in coupon settlements Friday.
  • The  effective Fed funds rate remains steady at 4.33%.

REPO REFERENCE RATES (rate, change from prev. day, volume):
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.35%, no change, $2817B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.33%, no change, $1169B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.33%, no change, $1139B

New York Fed EFFR for prior session (rate, chg from prev day):
* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33%, no change, volume:  $115B
* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.33%, no change, volume:  $262B

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US: Trump Press Conference On Washington DC Law Enforcement Underway

Aug-11 14:45

US President Donald Trump’s White House press conference, announcing expanded federal law enforcement in Washington, DC, is underway. LIVESTREAM

  • As reported earlier, Trump has invoked the 'Homerule Act' to place the DC police department under direct federal control. He also announces the deployment of the National Guard to Washington DC to “reestablish law, order, and public safety.”
  • Trump is likely to take questions from reporters at the conclusion of the law enforcement portion of his press conference. There will be considerable market focus on any comments related to the August 15 summit in Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
  • Trump may also address questions on a pending US-China tariff and export control pause that will expire tomorrow without Trump's endorsement of an additional 90-day pause.