US: Biden Leads Trump In Polling And Betting Market Aggregator
US President Joe Biden is now favoured over former President Donald Trump to win the presidency for the first time since October 2023, according Election Betting Odds - a site which aggregates data from polling and data from betting and prediction markets.
- The most notable shift appears to have come in prediction markets which have seen a mini-surge towards Biden in recent days. According to PredictIt, Biden is now assigned a 51% implied probability of winning compared to 45% for Trump. A considerable swing to Biden who trailed Trump by a similar margin at the start of March.
- The changing calculus is likely due to an increasingly stable economic outlook derisking one of Biden's key vulnerabilities and serious financing problems for Trump which may hinder his ability to match Biden's ad buys in swing states.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner
Source Election Betting Odds
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M4) Tops Resistance At 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 112-10+ 61.8% retracement of the Feb 1 - 23 bear leg
- RES 3: 112-04 High Feb 7
- RES 2: 111-27 50% retracement of the Feb 1 - 23 bear leg
- RES 1: 111-19 High Mar 6
- PRICE: 111-16+ @ 16:52 GMT Mar 6
- SUP 1: 110-05+/109-25+ Low Mar 1 / Low Feb 23 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 109-14+ Low Nov 28
- SUP 3: 109-12+ 1.764 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 108-25+ 2.00 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
Treasuries traded higher again Wednesday and has topped resistance at the 50-day EMA of 111-06. A clear break and close above this EMA would highlight a bullish reversal and open 111-27 initially, 50% of the downleg off the Feb 1 high. This week’s price action has worked against the broader downward trend direction, and a failure to maintain price at or above current levels would return focus back to next support at the 109-25+ bear trigger, the Feb 23 low.
LOOK AHEAD: SF Fed Pres Daly Coming Up
- 1200 SF Fed Daly keynote address reinvestment conf, Q&A, livestreamed
- 1400 Federal Reserve Beige Book
- 1615 MN Fed Kashkari, moderated discussion / WSJ event, livestreamed
AUD: AUD/USD Firm at Highs, But Bounce Deemed Corrective at These Levels
- AUD/USD remains firm in the bounce off yesterday's pullback low of 0.6478, and is rebuffing the bearish outlook that should hold below key S/T resistance at 0.6595, the Feb 22 high. Below here, strength is considered corrective - keeping focus on 0.6443. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6412.
- Momentum-based technical trading strategies have proved profitable in AUD/USD so far this year - an RSI-based strategy (long when RSI crosses above 30 from below, short when crossing 70 from above) continues to signal a winning short-position in AUD/USD off the late December high.
- Much of the AUD strength stems from the China NPC growth targets suggesting scope for both fiscal and monetary easing in China - disappointment with which could prompt an AUD reversal and re-orient focus on the downside. Sizeable AUD options are set to roll-off at Thursday's NY cut between $0.6520-25, with A$1.1bln notional seen expiring.
