US: Betting Markets Continue To See Biden As Slight Favourite To Win In 2024
Aug-30 19:26
Betting markets see President Biden as slight favourite to win the 2024 presidential election with an aggregated implied probability of 34.6% to win, ahead of second favourite, former President Donald Trump with 27.6%.
- Betting market data supports polling suggesting that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has falled from clear second favourite amongst Republican candidates to firmly back within the chasing pack - now the third favourite Republican behind outsider Vivek Ramaswamy.
- Presidential election polling shows little between Biden and Trump. Three recent polls from Morning Consult (Biden +1), Emerson College (Trump +2), and the Messenger (Biden +1) find nothing to separate either candidate from the polling margin of error.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Betting Odds
Source: RealClearPolitics
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US TSYS: US Treasury Q3 Issuance Estimate Larger Than Some Expected
Jul-31 19:23
- The US Treasury has announced it expects to borrow $1.007T in privately-held net marketable debt in the third quarter and an additional $852B in Q4.
- Treasury's Q3 estimate is $274B more than previously announced in May, primarily due to a low cash balance at the start of the quarter. Adjusted for changing cash balance levels, third quarter borrowing is expected to be the greatest quarterly borrowing on record. The U.S. agency also raised its previous assumption for the end-of-September cash balance by $50B to $650B, while assuming an end-of-December balance of $750B.
- The Q3 estimate is larger than some had forecast, with Bloomberg noting that JPM had penciled in $796B for Q3 whilst Lou Crandall at Wrightson ICAP had predicted $885B.
US TSY OPTIONS: Late Sep'23 10Y Call Buy
Jul-31 19:20
Over 12,000 TYU3 117 calls, 1 ref 111-13, lifted the offer, current market .5 bid at 2
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Positioning Ahead Friday's NFP
Jul-31 19:16
Two-way trade carried over from overnight, positioning ahead of Friday's July employment data. Underlying Tsy and SOFR futures mildly higher while rate hike projections through year-end remain muted.
- SOFR Options:
- Block, 5,000 SFRZ3 94.06/94.18 put spds, 1.0 ref 94.625
- 5,000 SFRV3 94.75/95.25 call spds
- 2,000 SFRH4 93.75/94.00 put spds, 1.5 ref 94.84
- 1,000 2QQ3 96.87/97.12 3x2 call spds ref 96.365
- 3,000 OQU3 95.25/95.62 put spds vs. 2QU3 96.00/96.37 put spds
- 1,500 OQQ3 95.12/95.50 1x2 put spds vs. 2QQ3 96.31 puts
- Treasury Options:
- 5,000 FVU3 104.75/106 put spds
- over 9,000 TYU3 114.5 calls, 5 last ref 111-14.5
- 2,300 FVZ3 105.5 puts, 36 ref 107-12.75
- 3,000 TYU3 108/109 put spds, 5 ref 111-14
- 2,000 USU3 119 puts, 14 ref 124-16
- over 10,000 TYU3 109 puts, 10 last
- over 5,000 TYU3 109/110 put spds, 9 last ref 111-17
- Block 2,100 TUU3 101 puts, 4.5 ref 101-17
- 2,000 FVU3 106.5 puts, 29.5 ref 106-25.25
- over 3,000 TYU3 112 calls, 33 last
- 1,500 TYU3 113 calls ref 111-08
- 1,500 USV3 116/118/119/121 put condors ref 124-13
- over 5,100 FVV3 108 calls, 35.5 last
- over 2,800 FVU3106.5 puts, 35 last
- over 2,500 FVU3 107 calls, 31.5 last
