ARGENTINA: Betting Market Shifts Milei's Way As Election Campaign Draws To Close
Political betting markets have shifted in favour of right-wing libertarian candidate Javier Milei in the last hours before the presidential election second round takes place on 19 Nov. Milei is now afforded a 58.0% implied probability of becoming president, compared to Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa's 42.0%. MNI's Election Preview for the run-off can be found here.
- Polls close at 1800 local time on 19 Nov, with exit poll data and results expected to start arriving after 2100 local time (1900ET, 0000GMT, 0900JST) as mass dissemination of data is illegal for three hours after the closure of polling stations under National Law 25,610.
- The already foul-tempered election risks turning in an even more bitter direction, with the FT reporting that Milei's sister has formally accused the military police force that deals with handling and transporting ballot boxes of participating in a "colossal fraud" in the 22 Oct first round (won by Massa).
- FT: "The complaint, which cites sources “who wish to remain anonymous for safety reasons”, alleges that police in some regions “swap the content of ballot boxes and documentation for others, which they modify in favour of the ruling party and Sergio Massa, which considerably alters the election result”."
- In response, Security Minister Aníbal Fernández, part of the left-wing Peronist Homeland Union backing Massa, called the allegations "cheap and crude", stating that he would lodge his own complaint against Milei's Freedom Advances alliance.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election, %
Source: electionbettingodds.com, Betfair, Polymarket, Smarkets
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CANADA: Mixed GoC Performance Amidst Treasury Bear Steepening
- GoCs have lifted off session lows but still sit firmly cheaper over the past hour, dragged by Tsy for 3.5-4bp cheaper across the curve.
- They underperform at the front end (2YY +4bp vs 1.7bp for Tsys), perhaps with some delayed impact from stronger than expected CAD housing starts.
- The long-end doesn’t keep pace with the sell-off though, with the 10YY +4.6bps vs +6.8bp for Treasuries, the latter having kicked on with Gaza humanitarian aid headlines and futures pushing through support levels.
- Upcoming drivers are likely concentrated on potential spillover from Fedspeak, with next local factors input prices and 10Y supply tomorrow.
US TSYS: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 5.355%(ALLOT 46.54%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 5.355%(ALLOT 46.54%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 27.78% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 4.41% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 67.80% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.27
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z3) Trips Bear Trigger
- RES 4: 110-10+ High Sep 8
- RES 3: 109-20 High Sep 19
- RES 2: 109-03 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 107-24+/108-16 20-day EMA / High Oct 12
- PRICE: 105-25+ @ 16:15 BST Oct 18
- SUP 1: 105-24 Low Oct 18
- SUP 2: 105-01+ 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 104-26 2.00 proj of the Jul 18 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing
- SUP 4: 104-17+ Low Jul’07
Treasuries traded lower again Wednesday, plumbing new pullback lows as the global rout on bonds continued. This pushes prices through the bear trigger, narrowing the gap with the 2.0% 10-dma envelope support of 105-01+. Key support at 106-03+ has given way, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and exposing the 105-00 handle and below. Key short-term trendline resistance has been defined at 108-16, the Oct 12 high, where a break is required to highlight a short-term reversal.
