ASIA STOCKS: Better Global Equity Sentiment Fails To Lift SK/Taiwan Inflows
Yesterday's equity market rebounds for both South Korea and Taiwan didn't aid offshore inflows into these markets. We saw modest outflow trends continue despite the better global equity tone, as market sentiment was boosted by signs the US government shutdown would end. For South Korea, the positive price action for the Kospi has continued today, with the index up a further +1.75%, putting the index back around 4140/45. Fresh record highs above 4225/30 aren't too far away. Early trends, per the NBUY function on BBG, point to positive inflows so far today, but less than $100mn at this stage.
- For Taiwan, late yesterday TSMC reported a 16.9%y/y rise in sales for Oct, which was the slowest rise since Feb 2024, creating some AI demand concerns. Still, this was in line with analyst estimates, while BBG noted that FX shifts may have played a role. Also note this follows the bumper export number for Oct, led by the tech/chip side (up nearly 50%). TSMC shares remained supported on dips but we remain sub recent highs, last around TWD1480.
- Elsewhere, Indian inflows recovered into the end of last week, bringing the 5-day sum back into positive territory. Earlier remarks from US President Trump stated a US-India trade deal pretty close and that Indian tariff rates would come down at some stage. Indian equities have struggled since the start of Nov, but regained some ground yesterday.
- In South East Asia, Indonesia remains the main positive, with YTD outflows continuing to be pared back. The strong inflows for the Philippines last Friday wasn't repeated on Monday.
Table 1: Asian Markets Net Equity Flows
| Yesterday | Past 5 Trading Days | 2025 To Date | |
| South Korea (USDmn) | -114 | -4875 | -1761 |
| Taiwan (USDmn) | -273 | -3759 | 1013 |
| India (USDmn)* | 872 | 274 | -15888 |
| Indonesia (USDmn) | 55 | 170 | -2293 |
| Thailand (USDmn) | -33 | -92 | -3088 |
| Malaysia (USDmn) | 15 | 32 | -4179 |
| Philippines (USDmn) | 2 | 102 | -673 |
| Total (USDmn) | 524 | -8148 | -26869 |
| * Data Up To Nov 7 |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
