ENERGY: Bessent: Trump Willing to Continue Talks With Putin: Bloomberg

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• President Donald Trump is eyeing investment deals at today's inaugural Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Event.
• Former NSA Mike Waltz's appearance before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee today offers Democrats a rare chance to grill a Trump administration insider.
• House Ways and Means Republicans will meet USTR Jamieson Greer this morning and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Wednesday for trade negotiation updates.
• The EU has finalised a list of countermeasures targeting goods worth around USD$85 billion, but will refrain from retaliation while negotiations are ongoing.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects to meet his Chinese counterpart in the coming weeks.
• Japanese officials say Tokyo has no plans for tariff retaliation.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) could delay a first procedural vote on Trump’s USD$9.4 billion rescissions package.
• White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett, a close Trump ally, is firming as favourite to become the next Fed Chair.
• Trump increased pressure on Russia, announcing plans to send defensive and offensive weapons to Ukraine via NATO partners and issuing Russian President Vladimir Putin a 50-day ultimatum to reach a peace deal with Ukraine, or be hit by “very severe tariffs”. Thune said he would hold off on advancing a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill, in light of Trump's statement.
• Poll of the Day: Trump’s approval ratings ticked back up despite a turbulent week for his administration.

Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF

SEK is once again underperforming the G10 basket, with EURSEK up 0.45% and narrowing the gap to resistance at 11.2784 (Jul 7 high). Clearance of this level would see the cross fully unwind the June flash CPI-induced fall, suggesting markets do not consider the print a serious impediment to future Riksbank easing. We wrote yesterday that an August Riksbank cut still can’t be fully ruled out, with another inflation report still due on August 7 (flash print, final on 14th) and growth data printing softly in recent months. 

• Clearance of the Jul 7 high in EURSEK would expose 11.3203, the 76.4% retracement of the March – April selloff.
• This morning, 5-year ahead money market participant CPIF inflation expectations fell two tenths to 1.8% - the lowest since July 2021. The survey was conducted between June 30 – July 6, so did not include the stronger-than-expected flash June inflation report. The Riksbank will likely need to see several 5-year prints below the 2% target to become concerned about a de-anchoring of inflation expectations, not just in the monthly money market participant survey but also the broader quarterly survey (which includes social partners’ expectations).
• The Swedish macro calendar thins out for the remainder of this week, but we will still pay attention to the Public Employment Service’s June labour market report tomorrow – particularly data on redundancies and vacancies. 

• The greenback is off the European morning lows, but the recovery bounce off the cycle low earlier this month in the USD Index remains intact for now, with no major trend changes into today's CPI print.
• Indeed, overnight vols are higher, but the implied premium is relatively contained into the data. EUR/USD overnight vols are north of 10 points, but shy of recent highs, including yesterday's bid on the US tariff headlines and the early July NFP print.
• Larger option expiries rolling off at today's cut (90 minutes after inflation data) include several large strikes in EUR/USD, which may contain any reaction:

• EUR/USD: $1.1550-70(E2.7bln), $1.1600-15(E1.5bln), $1.1665-70(E680mln), $1.1730(E507mln)
• USD/JPY: Y146.35-50($566mln), Y148.25-30($700mln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6480-00(A$1.6bln), $0.6560(A$631mln)