FED: Beige Book Likely More Notable Than Dovish Permanent Voter Fedspeak

We don’t expect today’s scheduled Fedspeak events to spring particular surprises on the rate outlook, with appearances geared for meaningful discussions coming from dovish members with well-known views. QT-related commentary, realistically from Miran, could be interesting however after Powell indicated it may be nearing an end in the coming months. More notable for us will be the Fed’s Beige Book at 1400ET, with anecdotal evidence of heightened importance amidst a dearth of government data releases. 

Today’s Fedspeak schedule: 

• 0930ET – Gov. and CEA’s Miran (voter, outright dove) on the “The Game Plan and The Fed” at Invest in American Forum (no text)
• 1230ET – Gov. and CEA’s Miran (voter, outright dove) in moderated conversation at Nomura Research Forum (no text)
• 1300ET – Gov. Waller (voter, dove) speaks on AI (text + Q&A)
• 1430ET – Kansas City Fed’s Schmid (’25, hawk) holds public townhall event (no text)

Recent context: 

• Speaking on CNBC on Friday, Gov Waller - reportedly a finalist in Fed Chair considerations -  unsurprisingly affirmed his view that the Fed should follow through with a series of cuts in light of developing labor market weakness (saying the labor market is "not tight in any way, shape or form"). While it's clear he's among the most dovish members on the Committee, eyeing 2 more rate cuts this year, he doesn't advocate too aggressive an easing: "I'm still in the belief we need to cut rates, but we need to kind of be cautious about it."
• Miran pencilled in 150bp of cuts to end-2025 in last month’s SEP, eyeing a Fed Funds target rate range of 2.75-3.0%. Speaking on Oct 7 on how his thinking might evolve with missing government data: “My view is that monetary policy should be forward looking and should be forecast dependent. And so given the forecasts I have in mind, I would be looking for evidence that there was a reason why they might not come to pass. […] Thus far, at any rate, I haven't seen anything that would make me think that my view has to be materially adjusted.”
• Schmid is likely one of the six dots who supported a cut in September before no further cuts in Oct or Dec. From Sep 26: "I viewed the 25-basis point cut in the policy rate last week as a reasonable risk-management strategy as the Fed balances its inflation objective with some heightened concern over the health of the labor market [...] My view is that inflation remains too high while the labor market, though cooling, still remains largely in balance."