USDCAD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.3745 High Mar 27
- RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 1.3574/3587 50- and 20-day EMA values
- RES 1: 1.3537 High Ar 3
- PRICE: 1.3480 @ 07:24 BST Apr 6
- SUP 1: 1.3404 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally
- SUP 2: 1.3358 Low Feb 16
- SUP 3: 1.3334 Low Feb 15
- SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support
USDCAD remains bearish and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and 1.3562, 50% of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally. The move lower signals scope for an extension and note that 1.3491 was cleared on Apr 3, the 61.8% retracement. The break opens 1.3404, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3537, Monday’s high.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 08-Mar | 0930 | ---- | BOE Dhingra at Resolution Foundation |
| 10-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Monthly GDP/Services/IP/Construction/Trade |
| 14-Mar | 0700 | Jan/Feb | Labour Market Survey |
| 15-Mar | ---- | ---- | Chancellor Delivers Spring Budget, OBR Forecasts, Likely DMO Remit |
| 20-Mar | ---- | ---- | DMO Quarterly Consultation with GEMMs |
| 21-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Public Sector Finances |
| 22-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Inflation Report |
| 22-Mar | 0930 | Jan | ONS House Price Index |
| 23-Mar | 1200 | ---- | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 24-Mar | 0001 | Mar | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 24-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Retail Sales |
| 24-Mar | 0930 | Mar | S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI (Flash) |
| 24-Mar | 1630 | Q2 | BOE Announces Q2 Active Gilt Sales Schedule |
| 29-Mar | 0001 | Mar | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 31-Mar | 0700 | Q4 | GDP Second Estimate / Current Account |
RBA: VIEW: Westpac: Opens The Door For A Pause
Westpac note that “There is some clear evidence in the Governor’s Statement that a pause can be expected in April but the big picture for inflation has not improved sufficiently to justify that call. We continue to expect rate increases in both April and May. Nevertheless, we will be assessing the Governor’s speeches over the next few weeks and the critical information in the Board Minutes to see whether the case for an imminent pause is justified.”
BTP TECHS: (M3) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 113.72 High Feb 20
- RES 3: 113.43 High Feb 24 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 112.74 High Feb 27
- RES 1: 112.47 High Mar 6
- PRICE: 111.42 @ Close Mar 6
- SUP 1: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 110.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 109.55 1.618 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 price swing
- SUP 4: 109.20 1.764 proj of the Feb 20 - 22 - 24 price swing
BTP futures traded to a fresh short-term trend low of 110.25 on Mar 2. The move down maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and this reinforces the downtrend. The focus is on the 110.00 handle and 109.55, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, recent gains are considered corrective. Initial resistance is seen at 112.47, yesterday’s high. Key short-term resistance is at 113.43, the Feb 24 high.
