USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
- RES 2: 1.2878 High Feb 24 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 1.2792 High Mar 4
- PRICE: 1.2703 @ 08:16 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 1.2587 Low Mar 3
- SUP 2: 1.2552 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally
- SUP 3: 1.2499 Low Jan 21
- SUP 4: 1.2451 LowJan 19 and a key support
USDCAD last week recovered well from the week’s low of 1.2587. The short-term outlook remains bearish. The recent move lower marks an extension of the reversal from 1.2878, Feb 24 high and still signals potential for a deeper retracement of the recent Jan 19 - Feb 24 upleg. The pair has breached 61.8% of this bull cycle and this has opened 1.2552, the 76.4% retracement. Initial resistance is seen at Friday’s 1.2792 high.
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USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Support
- RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
- RES 2: 1.2843 76.4% retracement of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off
- RES 1: 1.2797/2814 High Jan 28 / High Jan 6 and a key resistance
- PRICE: 1.2781 @ 16:10 GMT Feb 4
- SUP 1: 1.2650 Low Jan 27/Feb 2
- SUP 2: 1.2560 Low Jan 26
- SUP 3: 1.2451/48 Low Jan 19 / 76.4% of the Oct - Dec rally
- SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10
The USDCAD outlook remains bullish and Friday’s gains reinforce this theme, suggesting the recent corrective pullback is over. A positive theme follows the recovery from 1.2451, Jan 19 low. Price has traded above the 50-day EMA and the break has resulted in a move through 1.2768, 61.8% of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off. This has opened 1.2843, the 76.4% value. Initial firm support lies at 1.2560, Jan 26 low. First support is at 1.2650, Jan 27 and Feb 2 low.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, 5Y Sale
- -5,000 FVH 118-11.75, through 118-12 post-time bid at 1538:28ET
US TSY OPTIONS: Large Post-Close
10Y Ratio Put spd/spd at 1517:25ET:
- -4,616 TYH 127/128.5 put spds vs. TYJ 124/126 put spds on a 4x5 ratio, 2-59 net cr
