EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
- RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23 and a congestion high
- RES 2: 0.8683/8701 100-dma / High Jul 19
- RES 1: 0.8637 High Jul 25
- PRICE: 0.8609 @ 16:15 BST Aug 2
- SUP 1: 0.8544 Low Jul 27
- SUP 2: 0.8518 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022
Short-term gains in EURGBP are considered corrective. Recent bearish price action threatens the bull theme - the latest move lower resulted in a breach of both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of weakness would expose 0.8504, the Jul 11 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8637, the Jul 25 high. For bulls, clearance of the 100-dma of 0.8683 and congestion resistance at 0.8719, the May 23 high, would reinstate an uptrend.
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EURGBP TECHS: Primary Trend Direction Remains Down
- RES 4: 0.8786 Trendline resistance drawn from the Feb 3 high
- RES 3: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
- RES 2: 0.8719 High May 23
- RES 1: 0.8658 High Jun 28 and a short-term bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8597 @ 16:06 BST Jul 3
- SUP 1: 0.8576/36 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 23
- SUP 2: 0.8518 Low Jun 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8502 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
The primary trend direction in EURGBP is down and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 0.8658, the Jun 28 high. A break of this level would resume the recent uptrend and signal scope for a climb towards 0.8719, the May 23 high. On the downside, a deeper pullback would instead expose the bear trigger at 0.8518, where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, Late Sep'23 2Y Buy
- +5,000 TUU3 101-18.25, buy through 101-18 post-time offer at 1327:29ET
US TSYS: Rates Back Near Lows Despite Weaker ISMs
- Treasury futures finishing the shortened pre-holiday session at/near lows, accounts scaling back support despite early session data showed disinflationary signs.
- Treasury futures extend highs slightly after S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI comes out as expected at 46.3, not a large reaction.
- Treasury futures extended highs after June ISM Manufacturing falls to 46.0 vs. 46.9 est (47.2 prior) the lowest since May 2020. Prices paid at 41.8 lower than exp 44.2, ISM Employment at 48.1 lower than expected 51.4. Meanwhile, Construction Spending MoM lower than expected at +0.9% vs. 1.2% est.
- Front month 10Y futures marked 112-17.5 high (+9) before falling back to111-29.5 after the early close. Initial technical resistance at 112-21 Jun 22 low, 113-18 June 15 High key resistance.
- Later in the week, FOMC minutes for the June meeting are released at 1400ET Wednesday, while the latest employment data is released this Friday at 0830ET, current mean est at 225k vs. 339k prior.
