AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Extension
- RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
- RES 3: 0.6857/6900 High Jun 20 / 16 and key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6710/6806 20-day EMA / High Jun 27
- RES 1: 0.6663 Low Jun 23
- PRICE: 0.6628 @ 16:22 BST Jun 29
- SUP 1: 0.6596 Low June 29
- SUP 2: 0.6579 Low Jun 5
- SUP 3: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
- SUP 4: 0.6485 Low Jun 1
AUDUSD remains soft and the pair traded lower again early Thursday, extending the reversal that started Jun 16. The recent move lower has resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMA values, suggesting scope for a deeper retracement. 0.6627, 61.8% of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally, has been cleared and this opens 0.6562 next, the 76.4% retracement level. Key resistance is 0.6900, the Jun 16 high. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6710, the 20-day EMA.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6710 High May 16
- RES 2: 0.6624/72 20- and 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6574 Low Apr 28
- PRICE: 0.6515 @ 16:34 BST May 30
- SUP 1: 0.6491 Low May 29
- SUP 2: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
- SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10 2022
- SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022
AUDUSD is consolidating closer to its recent lows and remains bearish. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of 0.6565, the Mar 10 low, confirming a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlights a range breakout. The focus is on the 0.6403 Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a breach of 0.6818 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6672, the 50-day EMA.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Bullish Rate Hedging
Mixed trade in SOFR and Treasury options overnight, segued to better 5- and 10Y call trade after initially better puts during the NY session. Underlying futures climbing higher, 10s +25 at 113-06, yield 3.6942% -.1041.
- SOFR Options:
- +5,000 SFRZ3 94.50/94.75/95.00 put trees, 2.75-3.0 2 legs over
- 4,500 SFRN3 95.00/95.25/95.50 call flys ref 94.77
- -2,000 SFRM3 94.81/94.87 put spds, 5.25
- 2,500 SFRM3 95.00/95.25/95.50 call flys ref 94.685
- 2,000 SFRN3 95.00/SFRU3 95.12 call spds
- 4,150 OQM3 96.00/96.25 put spds ref 95.935
- 2,500 SFRM3 94.56 puts, 2.0 ref 94.70
- 2,500 SFRN3 94.50/94.75 3x2 put spds ref 94.79
- 2,000 OQM3 95.93/96.06/96.18 call flys ref 95.89
- 12,000 SFRM3 94.87/94.93/95.00 call flys, ref 94.70
- 5,100 SFRN3 94.75 puts, 16.5 ref 94.795
- 1,250 SFRU3 95.12/95.37/95.50 broken call flys ref 94.79
- Block, 5,000 SFRH4 95.25/95.50 put spds 7 over SFRH3 97.50/98.50/99.00 broken call flys
- Treasury Options:
- Block, 7,500 TYN3 114.5 puts ,116 ref 114-00.5
- -6,000 FVQ3 106.75 puts 1.5-2.0 over the FVQ3 110/112 call spds
- 2,500 TYN 115 calls, 33 ref 113-23.5
- 5,500 USN3 120 puts, 9 ref 127-08
- 4,300 USN3 122/123 put spds, 10 ref 127-08
- 22,000 wk2 TY 115.75/116.75 call spds ref 113-27.5
- 4,100 FVN3 110.75 calls ref 108-17.75
- over 11,000 FVQ3 110.5 calls, ref 108-15
- 5,500 wk2 TY 114 calls, 36 ref 113-22
- 1,500 FVN3 108.5 calls, ref 108-12.75
- 7,600 TYQ3 113.5 calls, 129 ref 113-18
- 5,200 FVN3 109 calls ref 108-11.75
- 5,700 FVN3 110 calls, ref 108-10.5
- 7,100 wk2 TY 114.5 calls ref 113-18.5
- 4,000 TUN3 102.5 puts, 21 ref 102-18.25
- 4,700 TYN3 110.5 puts, 13 ref 113-15.5
- 5,000 TYN3 113 puts ref 113-15.5
CANADA: CIBC Previewing Q1 GDP
- CIBC forecast Q1 GDP growth of 2.6% annualized, after a solid quarter albeit one that ended on a weaker footing.
- They see it driven largely by net trade as export volumes surged but imports floundered. However, weak imports likely mean a slower pace of inventory building as well, which will be a drag on overall GDP.
- Despite softer imports, they see final domestic demand, and in particular consumer spending, looking much more solid in Q1 than it was in 2H22. However, the strength in consumer spending during Q1 will be partly misleading, as a large chunk will represent the delivery of auto orders that were placed in 2022.
- Monthly data suggest that momentum faded noticeably as the quarter wore on, with a -0.1% M/M decline anticipated for March. With power outages in Quebec and a strike by Federal workers both disrupting the economy during April, the advance estimate for that month could point to another slight decline in GDP to start Q2.
