EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
- RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23 and a congestion high
- RES 2: 0.8680/8701 100-dma / High Jul 19
- RES 1: 0.8656 High Aug 3
- PRICE: 0.8604 @ 06:26 BST Aug 4
- SUP 1: 0.8544 Low Jul 27
- SUP 2: 0.8510 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022
Recent short-term gains in EURGBP appear to be a correction. The sell-off between Jul 19 - 27 highlights a bearish threat that resulted in a breach of both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of bearish price activity would expose 0.8504, the Jul 11 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8656, Thursday’s high. Clearance of this level would expose resistance at 0.8701, the Jul 19 high and a bull trigger.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 05-Jul | 0930 | Jun | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
| 06-Jul | 0930 | Jun | IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI / BOE DMP Survey |
| 09-Jul | 0830 | ---- | BOE Bailey Panels Rencontres Economiques |
| 10-Jul | 2000 | ---- | BOE Bailey Speech at Mansion House |
| 11-Jul | 0001 | Jun | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 11-Jul | 0700 | May/Jun | Labour Market Survey |
| 12-Jul | 0700 | ---- | BOE FPC Summary and Record |
| 13-Jul | 0700 | Jun | Monthly GDP/Services/IP/Trade/Construction |
| 19-Jul | 0700 | Jun | Inflation Report |
| 19-Jul | 0930 | Jun | ONS House Price Index |
| 21-Jul | 0001 | Jul | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 21-Jul | 0700 | Jun | Public Sector Finances / Retail Sales |
| 24-Jul | 0930 | Jul | S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI flash |
| 31-Jul | 0930 | Jun | BOE M4 / Lending to Individuals |
| 01-Aug | 0001 | Jul | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 05-Jul | 0745 | FR | Trade Balance |
| 05-Jul | 0800 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 05-Jul | 0815 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 05-Jul | 0845 | IT | S&P Global Services PMI |
| 05-Jul | 0850 | FR | S&P Global Services PMI |
| 05-Jul | 0855 | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05-Jul | 0900 | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05-Jul | 1000 | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 06-Jul | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 06-Jul | 0830 | EU | Manufacturing Orders |
| 06-Jul | 1000 | EU | IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 07-Jul | 0700 | DE | Retail Sales |
| 07-Jul | 0745 | FR | Industrial Production |
| 07-Jul | 0900 | IT | Foreign Trade |
| 07-Jul | 1000 | EU | Retail Sales |
| 07-Jul | 1745 | EU | ECB de Guindos Keynote Address at King's College |
GILT TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 97.64 High Jun 1 and the reversal trigger
- RES 3: 97.43 High Jun 2
- RES 2: 96.34/97.00 High Jun 27 / 23
- RES 1: 95.65 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 95.02 @ Close Jul 4
- SUP 1: 94.37/93.88 Low Jun 30 / 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 93.45 1.618 proj of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 price swing (cont)
- SUP 3: 93.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 92.66 Low Oct 14 2022 (cont)
Gilt futures remain soft following the recent move lower with price trading below 97.00, the Jun 23 high. The medium-term trend condition is bearish - a continuation lower and a break of 93.88, the Jun 20 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend. On the upside, a fresh recovery would expose key resistance at 97.64, the Jun 1 high. 97.00 is the bull trigger, the Jun 23 high. Initial resistance is at 95.65, the 20-day EMA.
