US TSYS: Bear Flatter With A Light Docket Ahead Of The Fed
May-07 10:57
* Treasuries trade bear flatter, with the front end paring some of yesterday's gains as investors ...
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STIR: SONIA FIX - 07/04/25
Apr-07 10:57
| SONIA FIX - Source: BBG/ICE | ||
| 1M | 4.45190 | -0.0125 |
| 3M | 4.27370 | -0.0415 |
| 6M | 4.12730 | -0.0622 |
| 12M | 3.92790 | -0.0766 |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle In Gold Points North
Apr-07 10:50
- On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the latest pull back - for now - appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. The next key support to watch lies at 2943.78, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3196.2, a 3.236 projection of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing. The bull trigger is 3167.8, the Apr 3 high.
- In the oil space, the impulsive sell-off in WTI futures continues to accelerate and last week’s move down resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels. The break reinforces a bearish threat and, despite being in oversold territory, signals scope for a continuation of the bear leg. Sights are on $57.79 next, a 2.236 projection of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing. Initial resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
US TSYS: Reversal Of Large Overnight Rally
Apr-07 10:50
- Treasuries sit twist steeper after a paring or full reversal of large overnight gains as equities lift off lows, helped in part by Italy Finance Minister Tajani pointing to a potential delay in EU tariff retaliation.
- A light docket sees tariff and broader-US policy headlines firmly in the driving seat.
- Cash yields are 4bp lower (2s) to 5bp higher (20s/30s), pivoting at 7s.
- 2s10s at 41.1bp (+6bp) has retreated from ~45bp for fresh highs since May 2022.
- TYM5 is back little changed on the day at 113-02+ (+01) after a high of 114-10 almost immediately with the Asia open. It’s been another huge overnight session for overnight volumes, standing at 1.35mln.
- The impulsive bull cycle has continued to punch through resistance levels, with 114-10 now latest resistance before 114-16 (Fibo projection of the Jan-Feb price swing). There is a sizeable gap to support at 112-01 (Mar 4 high and recent breakout level).
- Data: Consumer credit Feb (1500ET)
- Fedspeak: Kugler (1030ET)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $76B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions (1130ET), US Tsy $50B 14D CMB (1300ET)
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