USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

Jul-13 05:41
  • RES 4: 144.20 High Jul 7
  • RES 3: 1143.01 High Jul 10
  • RES 2: 142.06 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 140.27 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: 138.60 @ 06:40 BST Jul 13
  • SUP 1: 138.08 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 137.36 50.0% retracement of the Mar 24 - Jun 30 bull leg
  • SUP 3: 137.22 4.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

USDJPY cemented a bearish tone Wednesday, trading lower and extending the bear cycle that started Jun 30. The recent sell-off has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and price is again inside the bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low. The move signals scope for an extension towards 137.36, a Fibonacci retracement and 137.22, the 4.0% 10-dma envelope. Initial firm resistance is at 140.27, the 50-day EMA.

Historical bullets

EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 12 June, 2023

Jun-13 05:41

Spain looks to sell bills today while Germany and France came to the market yesterday. We look for issuance at first round operations of E11.2bln, down from last week's large E35.4bln.

  • Spain will conclude issuance for the week this morning, reopening 3-month Sep 8, 2023 letras and the 9-month Mar 8, 2024 letras for a combined E1.5-2.5bln.


For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Approaching Resistance

Jun-13 05:32
  • RES 4: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
  • RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
  • RES 2: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
  • RES 1: 4362.00 High May 29
  • PRICE: 4346.00 @ 06.15 BST Jun 13
  • SUP 1: 4216.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 4200.00 Round number support
  • SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
  • SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading higher today. Attention turns to resistance at 4362.00, the May 29 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development and signal scope for an extension higher towards key resistance at 4409.50, the Nov 18 2021 high on the continuation chart. The recent break of a number of support levels still highlights a potential bearish threat. A reversal lower would expose 4216.00, May 31 low and bear trigger.

LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Jun-13 05:23
Date UK Period Event
13-Jun 0700 Apr/May Labour Market Survey
13-Jun 1500 ---- BOE Bailey Lords Economic Affairs Committee Hearing
13-Jun 1600 ---- BOE Dhingra Speech at Manchester Metropolitan University
14-Jun 0700 May Monthly GDP/Services/IP/Trade/Construction
15-Jun 1635 ---- BOE Cunliffe at Politico Global Tech Summit
16-Jun 0930 May Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey
21-Jun 0700 May Inflation Report / Public Sector Finances
21-Jun 0930 Apr ONS House Price Index
22-Jun 1200 ---- Bank Of England Interest Rate
23-Jun 0001 Jun Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
23-Jun 0700 May Retail Sales
23-Jun 0930 Jun S&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI flash
27-Jun 0001 Jun BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
29-Jun 0930 May BOE M4 / Lending to Individuals
30-Jun 0700 Q1 GDP Second Estimate / Quarterly Current Account
06-Jul 930 Jun IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI