COMMODITIES: Bear Cycle in WTI Futures Intact Despite Short-Term Gains
A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains appear corrective - for now. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $63.85, the 50-day EMA. A bull cycle in Gold remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a medium-term pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
- WTI Crude down $0.08 or -0.13% at $63.44
- Natural Gas down $0.04 or -1.38% at $2.787
- Gold spot down $8.52 or -0.26% at $3330.15
- Copper up $0.6 or +0.13% at $451.8
- Silver down $0.09 or -0.23% at $38.0579
- Platinum down $13.2 or -0.97% at $1344.57
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GILT AUCTION RESULTS: 4.375% Jan-40 results
| 4.375% Jan-40 Gilt | Previous | |
| Amount | GBP3.00bln | GBP3.25bln |
| Avg yield | 5.066% | 4.850% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.69x | 2.88x |
| Tail | 0.1bp | 1.0bp |
| Avg price | 92.959 | 95.065 |
| Low price | 92.946 | 94.965 |
| Pre-auction mid | 92.939 | 95.052 |
| Previous date | 25-Jun-25 |
COMMODITIES: Gold Remains Close to Recent Highs, Dominant Uptrent Intact
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Jun 24 still appears corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.68. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to monitor is $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. A bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30 remains intact, and this week's gains mark an extension of the recovery. $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, has been cleared. A continuation higher would open $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. An initial firm support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.
- WTI Crude down $0.22 or -0.34% at $65.08
- Natural Gas down $0.02 or -0.62% at $3.232
- Gold spot down $2.21 or -0.06% at $3429.63
- Copper up $5.75 or +1.01% at $577.6
- Silver up $0.1 or +0.25% at $39.3871
- Platinum up $6.39 or +0.44% at $1451.53
EQUITIES: Focus for Eurostoxx 50 Futures Remains on Bull Trigger at 5486.00
The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Support to watch is 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. A stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle 7 and open 5500.00. S&P E-Minis traded to a fresh cycle high Monday. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 6381.50, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6120.59. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6264.70.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 1396.4 pts or +3.51% at 41171.32 and the TOPIX ended 90.19 pts higher or +3.18% at 2926.38.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 0.437 pts or +0.01% at 3582.298 and the HANG SENG ended 408.04 pts higher or +1.62% at 25538.07.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 251.51 pts or +1.05% at 24291.15, FTSE 100 higher by 44.16 pts or +0.49% at 9067.74, CAC 40 up 116.77 pts or +1.51% at 7861.18 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 76.61 pts or +1.45% at 5367.09.
- Dow Jones mini up 198 pts or +0.44% at 44909, S&P 500 mini up 23 pts or +0.36% at 6369.75, NASDAQ mini up 49.75 pts or +0.21% at 23274.
