TURKEY: BBVA Expects Easing Pace To Slow After September

US President Donald Trump's approval rating is holding relatively steady despite a flurry of polls showing differing results, with SilverBulletin showing Trump with a net -6.4% approval rating. 

• SilverBulletin notes: "The latest Trump approval numbers are what we in the polling average business call all over the place. Trump’s net approval rating in today’s American Research Group poll was -21. That’s the worst approval poll of his second term (tied with a June AP/NORC poll). He’s also 16 points underwater in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, 8 points underwater in last week’s Fox News poll, and 8 points underwater in today’s Morning Consult poll. On the other hand, the latest Trafalgar Group, InsiderAdvantage, and RMG Research polls show Donald Trump’s net approval rating at +10, +10, and +7 respectively."
• Trump's approval rating is likely to rise in the coming days, should the ceasefire agreement he negotiated between Israel and Iran prove durable. The perceived success of air strikes on Iranian military targets is also likely to bolster his foreign policy rating.  

Figure 1: Trump Approval Rating

Source: Silver Bulletin

• RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3648 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 1.3620 @ 16:38 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 1.3506 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.3367 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3277 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support

The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point north, affirmed by the break to a new YTD high. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3367, held well on the first test. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Key resistance gave way at 1.3632, the Jun 13 high. Clearance here resumes the primary uptrend.        

Bloomberg reports (link) that the EU is planning to impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports, including on Boeing, if President Trump puts a baseline levy on the bloc’s goods. Deliberations continue ahead of a July 9 deadline that will see sweeping tariff rates of 50% on nearly all EU exports. 

• From the piece: “EU officials expect the US to keep some duties in place, even after trade negotiations are concluded. Until now, the European Commission, which handles trade matters for the EU, hasn’t indicated if that would trigger retaliation from the bloc.”
• Recall that last week saw Reuters report European officials as increasingly resigned to the 10% baseline rate on reciprocal tariffs in any US-EU trade deal.
• One of the sources, an EU official, said negotiating the level down had become harder since the U.S. started drawing revenues from its global tariffs. "10% is a sticky issue. We are pressing them but now they are getting revenues," said the official.