UK: BBC-Gov't Denies 'Pause' To Chagos Deal

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has stated at a NATO committee meeting that, in discussions with European leaders, the alliance has agreed on “two workstreams” to address US President Donald Trump’s concerns over the security of Greenland.

• Rutte said the first workstream is for NATO “collectively to take more responsibility for the defence of the Arctic.” He says the primary objective is to prevent Russia and China from gaining more access to the Arctic region and increasing access to the Arctic economy in light of new shipping lanes.
• According to Rutte, a second workstream will take place in a trilateral setting between the US, Denmark, and Greenland to discuss Trump’s demands for sovereignty over the island. Rutte notes that he won’t be involved in the discussions.
• Rutte adds that there is, “no link between Ukraine discussion and Greenland discussion, they are totally separate,” noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin “would love” a European/US defence split in NATO.
• On Ukraine, Rutte says that negotiations are ongoing on security guarantees for Kyiv and the post-war ‘coalition of the willing’ peacekeeping force. Rutte echoes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said after trilateral Abu Dhabi talks that security guarantees are “close to being agreed upon.”
• Rutte stresses that US military support is crucial to European security and notes, “There will always be a very strong conventional US military presence in Europe, and the nuclear umbrella will be there.”

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey produced by the Dallas Fed shows a much stronger improvement in January than expected, the latest piece of data indicating a pickup in manufacturing activity to start the year.

• The general business activity index rose to -1.2 (-8.5 expected) from -11.3 prior for a 6-month best and the 2nd highest reading since the start of 2025. Particularly impressive was the jump in new orders to 11.8 (-6.6 prior) for the highest in 3 years, boding well for future activity. Production more than reversed December's contraction, coming in at 11.2 (-3 prior), denoting "a reading suggestive of an above-average pace of output expansion" per the Dallas Fed.
• Employment increased 10 points to 8.2, while the overall 6-month outlook rose to a 5-month high (16.6).
• If there is a negative takeaway it is in prices paid which continued to tick up for a 3rd consecutive month (by 1.9 points to 37.1 for a 4-month high), with prices received jumping (7-month high 18.5, up 9.7 points). It's potentially indicative of Texas manufacturers both bearing higher costs and passing them through (indeed the uptick in confidence comes as implied future margins widened to the best since early 2024, with received up but paid down) though this hasn't really been replicated in the other regional manufacturing surveys.
• This follows the 0.1pp tickup in flash manufacturing PMI and NY and Philadelphia Feds' impressive readings for January, albeit the Kansas City Fed's report was flat.
• We get the last major regional manufacturing survey for January on Tuesday with the Richmond Fed's report, followed by the Dallas Fed's Texas services survey which will round off the month of non-manufacturing reports. So far, January manufacturing activity's progress has looked more impressive than services'. 

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