EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Bank Polska Kasa Opieke: Mandate- €BMRK 10.25NC5.25T2 - FV

Nov-20 08:41

(PEOPW: A2neg/A-/BBB)

 IPT: MS+195bp

FV: MS+155bp

Bank Pekao mandating banks for a €BMK 10.25NC5.25 T2 bond. The notes are expected to be rated BBB- by S&P. We look at the following as comps.

 

  • Nova Ljubljanska 6.875% JAN34 (call JAN29), issue rating (NR/BB+/NR) is around YTC of 3.89% or z+161bp.
  • Mbank 4.7784% SEP36 (call JUN25), issue rating (NR/BB+/BB+) is around YTC of 4.19% or z+180bp.
  • BPCEGP 4.875$ FEB36 (call FEB31), issue rating (Baa2/BBB/BBB+) is around YTC of 3.86% or z+142bp.
  • ABANCA 4.625% DEC36 (call DEC31), issue rating (Baa2/NR/BB+) is at YTC of 4.06% or z+157bp. 

We estimate a FV of around MS+155bp.

Historical bullets

JAPAN: New Fin Min: Not Unnatural To Push For Abenomics v.2025

Oct-21 08:41

Newly-appointed Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has been speaking to the press. Says that she is committed to cooperation on tax within the governing coalition. The libertarian-federalist Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), which sits alongside PM-designate Sanae Takaichi's conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in gov't, laid out the elimination of sales tax on food for two years as one of its key demands to support Takaichi's gov't. Katayama expresses commitment to openly discussing the prospect of a reduction with Ishin. 

  • Katayama, who served as Minister for Regional Revitalization and Gender Equality from 2018-19, was previously part of the conservative-nationalist Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyukai faction led by the late PM Shinzo Abe. During her comments, Katayama says that it is "not unnatural to push forward a 2025 version of Abenomics". The 'three arrows' of aggressive monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms to enhance competitiveness defined Abe's second stretch in office. It is unclear at present how the 2025 version would differ from the initial formula.
  • Katayama does not comment when asked on BoJ rate hikes, saying only that the yen should 'move stably, reflecting fundamentals'. On JGBs, says the Ministry of Finance, is 'effectively managing' Japan's debt 'with the highest level of diligence'. 

SWEDEN: 3Y USD Syndication Launched With USD2bln Size

Oct-21 08:36
  • Size: USD2bln (in line with MNI's expected USD1.75-2bln range).
  • Books: Above $8.25b (including JLM interest): Leads
  • Maturity: 28 Jan, 2028
  • Coupon: Short first
  • Terms: SOFR MS+26
    • Revised guidance SOFR MS+28 area, guidance SOFR MS, IPT SOFR MS+30 area
  • Settlement: Oct. 28, 2025
  • Bookrunners: Barclays, Citi, Danske, SEB

     

Details as per Bloomberg/Market colour

GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: 1.30% Oct-27 Green Bobl / 2.50% Feb-35 Green Bund

Oct-21 08:16

This morning, Germany will hold its ninth and final green auction of the year.

  • On offer will be E750mln of the 2-year 1.30% Oct-27 Green Bobl (ISIN: DE0001030740) alongside E750mln of the 10-year 2.50% Feb-35 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z047).
  • The combined E1.5bln size will put total 2025 German green funding at E14.5bln (versus a target of E13-15bln).
  • Contrary to large parts of the German curve in the conventional segment, the German green segment has seen solid demand metrics throughout most of 2025 with no recent deterioration, with bid-to-covers ranging between 1.32x to 3.76x and bid-to-offers ranging between 1.05x and 3.75x this year. Pre-auction midprices were above the lowest accepted prices achieved at the auctions throughout the year.
  • However, it is also important to note that the auction metrics for green auctions have been helped by the auctions being generally of smaller sizes than for non-Green issues.
  • The 1.30% Oct-27 Green Bobl was last issued in January 2024 and saw a 2.24x bid-to-cover and a 2.14x bid-to-offer. The 2.50% Feb-35 Green Bund meanwhile was last issued more recently, in the last German green auction on September 9, with a 1.91x bid-to-cover and a 1.62x bid-to-offer.
  • The next German auction will be tomorrow's E3.0bln of the 7-year 2.50% Nov-32 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU27014).
  • Timing: Results will be available shortly after the bidding window closes at 10:30BST / 11:30CET.