EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Bank Polska Kasa Opieke: - €BMRK 10.25NC5.25T2 – Final terms

Measures of core inflation were stronger than expected in September across the board. Of particular note was the rise in the median/trim average measure, at a 5-month high 3.15% Y/Y in September vs median expectations of a decline to 3.0%. 

• Note also that August's median reading was revised up to 3.2% from 3.1%, bringing up August's trim/median avg to 3.10% from a previously estimated 3.05%.
• The upward revision meant that instead of remaining steady or even making disinflationary progress on a 3 month annualized rate basis from 2.5% prior, September's trim/median avg 3m ar picked up to 2.7% with August revised up to 2.6% from 2.5%. Progress in this category had been seen as key to the broader perception of disinflation but now that narrative looks slightly shakier.
• We also saw sequential seasonally-adjusted accelerations across other key aggregates- see below.

Core CPI (median & trim av - BoC focus):
% M/M: 0.23 in Sep'25 after 0.23 in Aug'25
% 3mth ar: 2.7 in Sep'25 after 2.6 in Aug'25
% 6mth ar: 2.95 in Sep'25 after 2.86 in Aug'25
% Y/Y: 3.15 in Sep'25 after 3.10 in Aug'25

CPI xFE (ex food & energy):
% M/M: 0.19 in Sep'25 after 0.13 in Aug'25
% 3mth ar: 1.56 in Sep'25 after 1.56 in Aug'25
% 6mth ar: 2.36 in Sep'25 after 1.97 in Aug'25

CPIX (ex 8 most volatile & indirect taxes):
% M/M: 0.31 in Sep'25 after 0.19 in Aug'25
% 3mth ar: 2.29 in Sep'25 after 2.3 in Aug'25
% 6mth ar: 3.08 in Sep'25 after 2.06 in Aug'25
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., MNI

• ERJ6 98.25/98.43/98.62c fly, bought for 2.25 in 5k.
• 0RH6 98.25/98.50/98.75c fly, bought for 2.5 in 5k.

Download Full Report Here

• Senate Republicans will have lunch at the White House at 12:00 ET 17:00 BST. The lunch appears to be a social event rather than a signal that President Donald Trump is preparing to insert himself into negotiations to end the government shutdown.
• A federal appeals court ruled that Trump can send federal troops to Portland, reversing a temporary restraining order.
• The US and Australia signed a landmark mineral deal as Washington looks to reduce exposure to China's control of the global rare earth supply chains.
• The US and Canada could sign a metals and energy deal at the APEC summit later this month.
• Vice President JD Vance is in Israel to stabilise the Gaza ceasefire.
• FHFA director Bill Pulte hinted that Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac could be taken out of federal government conservatorship this year.
• Interior Secretary Doug Burgum threw cold water on reports of a deal with Democrats on offshore wind.
• A second Trump-Putin summit is already in doubt. Kyiv looks to Europe to bolster support as Trump pivots again.
• Trump escalated his Latin American drug war with new measures against Colombia.
• US banks are struggling to put together a loan for Argentina as confidence in Trump's economic assistance package falters.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dismissed the prospect of new nuclear talks with the US.  
• Poll of the Day: Americans are less confident the GOP can keep the country prosperous. 

Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF