RUSSIA: Bank of Russia Halts Gold Purchases From Lenders as of March 15

Aside from the risk-off buying on Russia/Ukraine invasion fears, Tsys extend session highs after the bell -- for a more prosaic reason: measured pace of QE wind-down after NY Fed annc final buy-operations (see 1513ET bullet).

• Final buy-op on Thu March 9: Tsy 2.25Y-4.5Y, appr $4.025B.
• FI markets unwind shorts on bets the Fed could have annc'd an immediate end to QE, quelling chances of intermeeting move prior to March 16 FOMC.
• 30YY falls to 2.2321%, 2.2349 last (-.0814); 10YY falls to 1.9112%, 1.9147%last (-.1147).

Late Trade, Selling Into Risk-Off Bid: Trading desks report pick up in selling after knee-jerk/risk-off move on Russia/Ukraine headline, Tsys have trimmed gains briefly, finish near highs (USH +1-6 at 152-27), equities drew some dip buying but remain weaker (ESH2 around 4418.0).

• Trading desks report leveraged $selling 30s and putting on 5s30s steepeners. Incidentally, 5s30s currently +3.81 at 40.21.
• Eurodollar Options: Better volumes than Treasury options so far, but still fairly sporadic from exhausted markets after Thursday's re-pricing of larger/faster rate hikes due to inflation spike.
• Treasury Options: Trade varied but volumes relatively muted given the shifts in policy pricing since Thursday, not to mention support for underlying futures evaporating around the London close.

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2843 76.4% retracement of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2797/2814 High Jan 28 / High Jan 6 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2685 @ 15:53 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 1.2636 Low Feb 10
• SUP 2: 1.2560 Low Jan 26
• SUP 3: 1.2451/48 Low Jan 19 / 76.4% of the Oct - Dec rally
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10

USDCAD reversed an overnight rally into the Friday close, with yesterday’s low of 1.2636 marks the initial support. A positive outlook remains intact following the recovery from 1.2451, Jan 19 low that resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA and a climb through 1.2768, 61.8% of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off. This has opened 1.2843, the 76.4% value. A break below 1.2636 would threaten the bullish theme.

• RES 4: 0.7314 High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7277 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.7258 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.7249 High Feb 09
• PRICE: 0.7177 @ 15:51 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 0.7107/7052 Low Feb 8 / Low Feb 4
• SUP 2: 0.6968/6963 Low Jan 28 / Low Jul 16, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.6921 Low Jul 14, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6884 0.764 proj of the Oct ‘21 - Dec ‘21 - Jan price swing

AUDUSD has reversed sharply lower from Thursday’s high of 0.7249. The pullback means the pair has failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and is an early warning of a possible stronger short-term reversal. A deeper pullback would expose support at 0.7052, Feb 4 low. A break of this level would open 0.6968/6963, the Jan 28 and Jul 16, 2020 lows. On the upside, clearance of 0.7249 is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme.