EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Bank Muscat (BKMBOM): FY25, Neutral Take

Gov Miran on CNBC suggests that there isn't a plan in place for what happens when his term expires at end-January - asked if President Trump has discussed with him whether he would stay on or if the slot will be used by the next Fed Chair, "He has not talked to me about that."

• Miran says "I will be there for the January 28 meeting. And until somebody else is confirmed for my seat, I anticipate I would continue in that seat until somebody is confirmed."
• On whether he will continue to dissent in favor of 50bp cuts, Miran says that "we have been cutting rates, and so the amount of restriction has been declining somewhat. It's still not declined as much as I really would like it to, but it has declined somewhat. And as that amount of restriction declines, the imperative to dissent for an extra big cut becomes becomes similarly lessened. So, no, I won't commit to always dissenting."

ERZ6 98.25/98.375 call spread, bought for 1.75 in 10k

The EU plans to issue E90bln of NGEU and Macro Financial Assistance+ bonds in H1-26 (conventional and green). The EU had a E90bln target in H1 2025 and a E70bln target in H2 2025. We estimate it has raised E152.6bln nominal and E150.3bln in cash terms this year.

• There are 6 confirmed syndication weeks in H1-26 (6 in H1-25, 4 in H2-25) and 6 planned auction dates (7 in H1-25 and 6 in H2-25).
• “EU-Bonds will be issued using benchmark maturities from 3 to 30 years, with tap transactions and new lines, using auctions and syndications. The maturities for the new lines will depend on market conditions and the intention to bring liquidity to the curve where needed (with a preliminary focus on 3y, 7y, 10y and 20y)”.
• “EU-Bond auctions will continue to be 3-leg auctions complemented by non-competitive offers to EU Primary Dealers the day following the bond auction, allowing for the allocation of additional amounts of auctioned bonds (maximum 20 %)”.  
• “Tracking closely green expenditures reported by Member States, the Commission will continue to issue NextGenerationEU Green Bonds to finance the green component of the Recovery and Resilience Facility. NextGenerationEU Green Bond issuances in H1 2026 are expected to take place via tapping of existing bonds”.
• EU-bills will continue to be issued as triple-tranche auctions, with new 12-month lines issued during the first auction of the month.