EU CREDIT UPDATE: Average Cash Moves (Source: MNI, Bloomberg Finance L.P.)

• MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -8.9% SA THRU JAN 30 WK

Treasuries are modestly cheaper overnight ahead of an important session including the full QRA (0830ET), notable data releases from ADP (0815ET) & ISM Services (1000ET) plus a President Trump interview. After the close, Alphabet earnings are in focus before Fed Governor Cook on monetary policy. 

• Cash yields are 0.9-1.2bps higher across the curve.
• 10Y yields at 4.276% (+1.0bp) yesterday topped out at 4.2975% in a renewed look at the 4.30% level.
• TYH6 trades at 111-17+ (-01+) on lighter cumulative volumes of 275k after some heavier overnight sessions recently.
• It remains within yesterday’s range in moves that include a push to a low of 111-13+ as the bear trigger of 111-09 (Jan 20 low) starts to see more focus again - clearance could open the round 111-00. Support is seen at 112-02 (Feb 2 high).
• Data: MBA applications (0700ET), ADP employment Jan (0815ET), S&P Global US Services/Composite PMI Jan final (0945ET), ISM Services Jan (1000ET)
• Fedspeak: Cook on mon pol and economy (1830ET) – see STIR bullet
• Refunding: Monday’s quarterly financing estimates as usual shouldn't really change the expectations for the main event of Refunding week: the full announcement including Treasury policy statement today at 0830ET. See MNI's preview, published on Friday, here (link).
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $69B 17W bill auction (1130ET)
• Politics: Trump in TV interview (1100ET), Trump in policy meeting (1600ET)
• Earnings: Dominated by Alphabet after the close. Eli Lilly has already reported, seeing 2026 revenue at $80-83B vs estimates of $77.7B

SX7E (20th Mar) 270/240ps, bought for 3.8 in 6k.