AUDUSD TECHS: Maintains A Softer Tone For Now
- RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
- RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
- RES 1: 0.6712/6818 50-day EMA / High May 10
- PRICE: 0.6676 @ 06:53 BST May 16
- SUP 1: 0.6636 Low May 12
- SUP 2: 0.6565 Low May 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
- SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following the pullback from 0.6818, the May 10 high. A continuation lower would expose key support at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 2 and highlight a range breakout. On the upside, a breach of 0.6818 is required to reinstate a bullish theme and this would expose 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement.
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US: President Biden To Deliver Remarks At Rally In Ireland
US President Joe Biden is shortly due to address a crowd at a campaign-style rally in County Mayo, Ireland to conclude his three-day tour of Ireland.
- Livestream: https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/
- Reuters reports: “The tour, a celebration of his close links to his ancestral homeland and deep Catholic faith, has provided a preview of his planned 2024 re-election campaign, with enthusiastic flag-waving crowds, photo-ops with babies and long, loquacious speeches.”
AUDUSD TECHS: Fades Into Friday Close
- RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
- RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
- RES 1: 0.6797 High Apr 13
- PRICE: 0.6712 @ 16:03 BST Apr 14
- SUP 1: 0.6685/6620 Low Apr 14 / 10
- SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
- SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
- SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support
AUDUSD topped the 50-day EMA convincingly on Thursday amid broad USD weakness. This works against the broader downtrend, leaving a break below 0.6565 - the Mar 3 low - a requirement for any resumption and continuation of the bear cycle. A continuation higher would open 0.6824, the Feb 24 high and 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement. First support to watch is Thursday’s low at 0.6685. A breach would be seen as an early reversal signal.
US STOCKS: Real Yields Outweigh Initial Bank Optimism
- The S&P E-mini has pulled back off lows of 4138 but remains under pressure at 4149 at typing (-0.6%) as it unwinds half of yesterday’s push higher.
- It comes with the 10Y real yield pushing back towards session highs seen after retail sales, currently +5bps on the day with real yields behind most of the sell-off in nominal yields.
- Nasdaq trims earlier losses to see similar declines (-0.6%) whilst in banks, the KBW index (+0.7%) still sees striking contrast between large banks after positive earnings this morning and regionals currently -2.7%.
- North of the border, the TSX outperforms with 0.0%, with banks gaining +0.5%.
