USD: AUD and NZD underperforms into the European hours
- The Dollar has been mixed against G10s Overnight, similar story seen across multi assets, Govies, STIRs and Equities, The Swiss Franc was leading, but by a small 0.15%.
- Notable overnight mover was the Aussie, while the RBA delivered the widely expected unchanged rate, the rhetoric was leaning on the Dovish side, noting that growth has been weak combined with “some confidence” that inflation is “moving sustainably towards target”.
- Despite AUDUSD being down some 0.75% against the Greenback, the cross didn't quite managed to challenged Yesterday's low of 0.6373, ahead of the area of interest at 0.6350, the 2023 low (Prices are according to Bloomberg).
- The Kiwi is second worst performer, down 0.63%, but the 0.5800 continues to hold, main initial support is at 0.5797, the November and 2024 low.
- USDJPY still trades above the 151.00 figure, on the back of Treasuries futures drifting lower Yesterday, the overnight print of 151.55, was the highest for this Month, and next resistance will be seen at 151.70 20-day EMA.
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Historical bullets
JGB TECHS: (Z4) Bounce Reverses
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- PRICE: 143.70 @ 16:14 GMT Nov 08
- SUP 1: 143.39 - Low Nov 07
- SUP 2: 142.23 - Low Jul 02
- SUP 3: 140.21 - 1.236 proj of Mar 22 - Nov 1 ‘23 - Jan 15 price swing
Prices fell further Thursday, extending the recent pullback. The return lower at the start of this week has culminated in a break of 143.57, marking both the Jul 17 high on the continuation contract as well as the Oct 22 low. For now, the 50-dma tops out at 144.32, and marks first resistance. A continuation higher would open 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont) and a bull trigger.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Late 2Y/10Y Ultra-Bond Flattener
- Flattener crossed late Friday at 1645:30ET, DV01 $322,000
- -8,900 TUZ4 102-23.88, sell through 102-24.38 post time bid vs.
- +3,700 UXYZ4 113-16, post time offer
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.4179 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1 / 6
- PRICE: 1.3910 @ 16:29 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 1.3836/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 1.3744 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
USDCAD reversed course Wednesday and recovered from Tuesday's low. The trend outlook is unchanged, it remains bullish. Attention is the key resistance at 1.3946, the Aug 5 high. This hurdle has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high and a key medium-term resistance point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3836, the 20-day EMA.
