EU CONSUMER STAPLES: Auchan: Capital Structure Change - Summarised

Jul-25 12:29

Elo/Auchan; debt-pushdown/consent required for change of issuer
(ELOFR Unsec: NR/BB-)

The 27s, both 28s and 29s (total €2.9b in debt) are being requested to approve a change in issuer form HoldCo ELO, to the RE arm, New Immo Holding. Parent ELO will retain the €1b Jan-26s. If consent received, substitution expected to be completed by September.

New Immo/the RE arm has €7b of real estate (+1.4% LFL last yr), LTV of 35% (€2.9b of debt, €2.5b of which is intercompany loans pushed down from ELO), interest cover of 4x, vacancy of 4.5%. Turnover of €650m (9.2%y), EBTIDA on 55% margin. S&P had standalone rating of New Immo at BBB. 

Elo/Auchan; debt-pushdown, Moody's initiates at Ba1 

Auchan, the worst performer from consumer last year, is being sorted out today -> back around par, +7-8pts.  When we spoke to company back in October it said a spin-off of the RE arm was not being considered given it required close operational ties to remain to reduce hypermarket space in retail. To benefit of credit, that has changed. The idea was first floated at FY results/late Feb - but without detail.

Moody's expects:

  • NIH/RE arm will become financially independent from ELO, hence limited future distributions. Notes since 2019, despite links, no cash transfers occurred to ELO or Auchan.
  • NIH cap. structure to remain largely unsecured.
  • Pushdown to be completed by end of Sept 2025 (in-line with company guidance).
  • LTV of 45.7% post pushdown and to fall to 44.5% in 1-1.5yrs. Sees this comfortably positioned in Ba1 category.
  • Indirect exposure to Auchan performance to remain; "most of NIH assets are anchored around Auchan stores". We have noted in past of the 224 sites, 200 have Auchan retail. Notes not direct rental exposure but influences tenant demand/footfall. As aside, mgmt has noted in past re. rental dependency, no client makes up more than 2%.
  • Excludes €1.6b in off-balance-sheet commitments that are fist-demand guarantees across 12 JVs. Moody's excludes as they are tied to assets whose values exceed commitments, no history of guarantees being called and JVs actively managed by New Immo.

Elo/Auchan; debt-pushdown, S&P will not rate 

The BB- rating it is withdrawing was before the financial separation announced today (i.e. rated at Holdco/ELO level, full consolidating RE+Retail). Standalone was BBB but perhaps S&P was not as lenient as Moody's on the separation/remaining links.

Elo/Auchan; debt-pushdown, investor call 

The earnings call will go for some time, but presentation available, skip ahead to slide 50 that reiterates:

  • NIH will be "financially independent from ELO".
  • intragroup loans (last reported €2.5b) will be removed and "commitment from AFM to prevent special cash distributions from NIH". AFM here refers to owner Association Familiale Mulliez.
  • All other financial policies, including ceiling LTV of 40%. is in-line with what Moody's had when it initiated this morning.

Please note there is a "planned execution of a €415 million mortgage loan or a senior unsecured bond" (Moody's) in the 'coming weeks' (mgmt). This will be issued under new entity/NIH - equal to the transferred 27-29 bonds.

Re. how Auchan/retailing arm is doing - not well (LFL -1.4%, France -3.1%), with gross margins -30bps but offset by opex improvement. That left EBITDA margin unch at 1.1%. FY guidance is for €1b of EBITDA (vs. €0.9b LY) - the acquired casino stores is adding to cash lease expenses (likely to over €400m this FY) and dragging on capex (this half was €250m). Taken together likely to leave it still negative on FCF for FY25.

Historical bullets

US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Pushes Back On Iran Intel Leak

Jun-25 12:13

Download Full Report Here

  • President Donald Trump is in the Netherlands for a truncated NATO leaders’ summit focused on wrapping up a pledge to boost NATO defence spending to 5% of GDP, a major win that offers Trump a victory lap.
  • Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with the latter attempting to recentralise Russia’s war in Ukraine after the conflict took a backseat to the Israel-Iran war. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US is not ready to consider additional sanctions on Russia.
  • Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani is on track to win the New York mayoralty, triggering another partisan flashpoint in US politics.
  • Trump administration officials and Israeli intelligence have pushed back against reports that US strikes failed to significantly damage Iranian nuclear sites.
  • Fed Chair Jay Powell is on Capitol Hill for a second round of testimony on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report.
  • Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is likely to gamble that pressure from Trump will be enough to force the OBBB through the Senate. Thune is expected to hold the first procedural votes on the bill on Friday. The House Freedom Caucus is signalling that they will vote no on the Senate package, in its current form.  
  • NEC Director Kevin Hassett said the Trump administration is waiting for Congress to complete the OBBB before announcing pending trade deals.
  • Poll of the Day: Republican support for Iran strikes has surged since the military action. 

Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF

US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

Jun-25 12:05

SOFR & Treasury options see moderate volumes overnight, trade relatively mixed compared to better upside SOFR calls the last couple sessions. Underlying futures weaker, near recent lows. Curves bear steepen (2s10s +3.802 at 50.527) while projected rate cut pricing largely steady vs. late Tuesday levels (*): Jul'25 at -5.2bp (-4.7bp), Sep'25 at -25.8bp (-25.3bp), Oct'25 steady at -41.2bp, Dec'25 at -59.7bp (-59.6bp).

  • SOFR Options:
    • Block, 2,500 2QN5 96.68/96.93/97.18 call flys, 0.75 ref 96.775
    • 2,500 0QN5 97.12/97.18 call spds vs. 96.12/96.37 put spds ref 96.82
    • 2,000 SFRH6 98.50 calls, 2.5
    • 2,000 SFRZ5 95.68/SFRU6 96.12 put spds
    • +2,000 SFRQ5 95.93/96.06 call spds, 4.0 vs. 95.965/0.17%
    • 3,200 SFRU5 95.62/95.75 put spds, 2.5 ref 95.96
  • Treasury Options:
    • 8,500 TUQ5 105/106.5 1x2 call spds ref 103-27.75
    • +1,700 TYQ5 108/109.5 2x1 put spds, 3 ref 111-19.5
    • +5,000 TYU5 107/108 put spds, 4 ref 111-14/0.04%
    • +1,500 TYQ5 112.5/114.5 call spds, 21 vs. 111-21/0.23%
    • 1,370 wk4 TU 103.62/103.75/103.87/104 call condors, exp 6/27
    • 4,300 TYQ5 113 calls ref 111-23.5
    • 3,000 TYQ5 111.5 calls

GILT PAOF RESULTS: The PAOF for the 4.375% Jan-40 Gilt was not taken up.

Jun-25 12:03
  • GBP812.5mln have been on offer.
  • This leaves GBP27.364bln of the gilt in issue.