US DATA: Atlanta Fed GDPNow Sees Large Downgrade To Q1 After Trade, PCE Data
Mar-28 14:15
Note while it may have been missed just before the Michigan data was released, Atlanta GDPNow posted a big downward revision to Q1 growth: now -2.8% (was -1.8% two days ago), and -0.5% "gold adjusted" (was +0.2% two days ago).
- The downgrade - which takes into account the impact of the final Q4 GDP estimates as well - was led by the larger-than-expected February trade deficit, though we also saw pullbacks in estimates for inventories and PCE after the latest data. Equipment investment is seen a little stronger, however.
- The gold-adjusted figure's differential to the non-adjusted reading widened to 2.3pp, vs 2.0pp prior to the February release. (Recall, this adjustment is being made because a surge in monetary gold imports driving up the trade deficit and thus drag from net exports is not seen as a measure of underlying real activity).
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