US DATA: Atlanta and Dallas Fed GDP Tracking Points To Higher FOMC Forecast
Dec-04 17:10
- The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow has been revised down marginally from 3.85% to 3.81% for annualized real GDP growth in Q3.
- It continues a slow moderation from 4.2% estimates in the second half of November but is still towards the high end of the longer than usual window for Q3 estimates. This extended run for the GDPNow is because the government shutdown has meant we missed the BEA advance and second estimates on Oct 30 and Nov 26 respectively. The next release is set for an “initial” estimate on Dec 23.
- Ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, it currently paints a very similar picture to the 3.84% in Q2. What’s more, the drivers behind this quarterly growth are indicative of underlying strength, with private domestic final purchases estimated at ~2.9% annualized after 2.86% in Q2.
- As for a more timely update, today’s Dallas Fed weekly economic index points to further robust GDP growth into Q4, tracking at 2.3% Y/Y in the late November. Note that the Dallas Fed weekly economic index is consistent with 2.4% Y/Y real GDP growth in Q3 vs the 2.2% Y/Y implied by GDPNow.
- Whilst these together imply more of the same since the 2.1% Y/Y back in Q2, the median FOMC forecast from September had this cooling to 1.6% Y/Y in Q4.
- There will be another GDPNow update tomorrow after the important personal income and outlays report for September.
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