FOREX: Asia-Pac FX: USD Drifts Higher In Asia On USD/JPY Move
The BBDXY has had a range today of 1219.55 - 1221.03 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1220, +0.10%. The USD opened stronger in Asia on reports the US shutdown might be ending, this saw risk and Yen-crosses gap higher on the open. The USD/JPY movement dominated the Asian session but I suspect the USD will be sold against risk currencies like the AUD & NZD and even the EUR into the London open should risk build on this initial reaction. Intra-day I suspect sellers should re-emerge back toward the 1223.50 area, the first real buy zone is back toward the 1215 area. Look for the USD to do some work and chop around within the 1215-1230 range. "SENATE HAS VOTES TO ADVANCE BILL TO END SHUTDOWN" - BBG
- EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1542 - 1.1562, Asia is currently trading 1.1550. The pair continued to build on its support below 1.1500, I suspect rallies will now find sellers toward the 1.1650 area initially. This has been the pivot with the larger 1.1400-1.1900 range over the past few months.
- GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3137 - 1.3164, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3145. The pair continues to build on its bounce off the 1.3000 area. I continue to favor fading rallies though as GBP looks to have put in a medium term top. I suspect the 1.3250-1.3300 area is the place to fade if we see that level again.
- Cross asset : SPX +0.70%, Gold $4050, US 10-Year 4.1340%, BBDXY 1220, Crude Oil $60.20
- Data/Events : EZ Sentix Investor Confidence
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
