FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - BBDXY Finds Demand Sub 1210
The BBDXY has had a range of 1208.49 - 1211.50 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1211, +0.04%. The USD, with a huge rejection of the 1220/1230 area on Friday, had a knee-jerk reaction lower to the outsized move in US rates as the market's view on growth and interest rate cuts is re-evaluated. The USD is consolidating just above its 1205 support, with very little reaction to either rates extending lower or Equities bouncing strongly.
- EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1554 - 1.1588, Asia is currently trading 1.1560. The pair has bounced nicely off the important 1.1300/1.1400 area. The market is consolidating just ahead of its first resistance towards 1.1650/1.1700.
- GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3278 - 1.3303, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3280. This pair bounced nicely off the 1.3100/1.3200 support area. I would suspect sellers would be around on a bounce back towards 1.3400 initially.
- USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1774 - 7.1843, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1366, Asia is currently dealing around 7.1830. Sellers should be around on bounces while price holds below the 7.2200/2500 area and the PBOC manages the fix lower. Above 7.2500 and we could see a test of the USD Shorts.
- Cross asset : SPX +0.15%, Gold $3372, US 10-Year 4.20%, BBDXY 1211, Crude Oil $66.16
- Data/Events : France Industrial/Manufacturing Production/HCOB PMI’s, Spain Homes Sales/Industrial Production/HCOM PMI’s, Italy HCOM PMI’s, Germany HCOB PMI’s, EZ HCOM PMI’s/PPI
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot 120min Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.3674/3776 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 1.3607 @ 16:12 BST Jul 4
- SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
The trend needle in USDCAD points south and this week’s move down reinforces current conditions. S/T gains between Jun 16 - 23 appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger is 1.3540, Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection. Pivot resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3776. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 0.6548 @ 16:05 BST Jul 04
- SUP 1: 0.6521 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6468/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The latest break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6373, the Jun 23 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 171.88 High Jul 19 ‘24
- RES 3: 171.28 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: 171.09 High Jul 23 ‘24
- RES 1: 170.61 High Jul 03
- PRICE: 170.22 @ 16:04 BST Jul 04
- SUP 1: 169.04 Low Jul 02
- SUP 2: 167.87 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 167.13 Low Jun 20
- SUP 4: 165.66 50-day EMA
EURJPY traded higher on Thursday resulting in a print above 170.47, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 sell-off. A clear break of this price point would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for extension. This would open 170.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought, a pullback would unwind this condition. Support to watch lies at 167.87, the 20-day EMA.
