ASIA: Coming up in the Asia-Pac session on Friday
Sep-12 21:10
| 2130GMT | 0530HKT | 0830AEDT | New Zealand Aug BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI |
| 0200GMT | 1000HKT | 1300AEDT | South Korea July Money Supply |
| 0245GMT | 1045HKT | 1345AEDT | Japan to Sell 3-Month Bills |
| 0330GMT | 1130HKT | 1430AEDT | Japan July Industrial Production |
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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Caution Putting Too Much Weight On CPI Nowcast
Aug-13 19:47
- The Cleveland Fed nowcast has headline CPI bouncing to 0.24% M/M in July, whilst its core CPI estimate nudges 1bp lower to 0.27% M/M.
- Note though that its core tracker has seen two sizeable overshoots in the latest two months, worth 0.22pps in June and 0.14pps in May.
USDCAD TECHS: 50-Day EMA Key at the Close
Aug-13 19:45
- RES 4: 1.4048 High May 22 2020
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022
- RES 1: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3722 @ 16:15 BST Aug 13
- SUP 1: 1.3731/18 50-day EMA / Low Aug 9
- SUP 2: 1.3657 Low Jul 17
- SUP 3: 1.3589 Low Jun 11 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and recent gains reinforce this theme. Near-term, the pair has pulled back from the Aug 5 high. A move lower appears to be a correction and is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The 50-day EMA, at 1.3732, has been pierced and will be key at the Tuesday close. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 1.3657, the Jul 17 low. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 1.3946, the Aug 5 high.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: RBC Don't See Fed Panicking On Inflation
Aug-13 19:17
- RBC see core CPI at 0.1% M/M (cons 0.2) as they expect further signs of easing inflation in July, “reassuring” the Fed that annual rates “will continue to move lower”.
- “In June, the Fed’s “supercore” (core services ex-rent) measure posted its lowest reading on a three-month annualized basis since October 2021 at 1.3%. The breadth of inflationary pressures has narrowed in recent months and the share of products seeing inflation above 5% has returned to pre-pandemic levels.”
- “Home rents continue to account for a disproportionate share of the remaining annual price growth. But, it is slowing as the impact of earlier easing in market rent increases eventually passes through to lease agreements.”
- “U.S. economic growth (or inflation) numbers haven’t hit a level yet that would push Fed officials to panic. But, it is becoming increasingly difficult to justify interest rates more than 200 basis points above the Fed’s own estimate of the long-run “neutral” rate.”
- RBC’s base case is that the Fed will cut 25bps in September “and risks of a larger cut are contingent on further downside in economic growth or inflation surprises.”
