ASIA: ASEAN Fin Mins Talk Up Further Integration Amid Iran Conflict Fallout

Apr-10 11:52

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have published a joint statement following a virtual meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors earlier on 10 April. While a large number of topics were on the agenda, the economic fallout for the region from the war in Iran remains a key concern for all members, given their reliance on oil flows from the Gulf through the Straits of Hormuz. 

  • ASEAN: "To mitigate the impact of global and regional developments, including the situation in the Middle East, we reaffirmed our commitment to deepening regional financial integration, strengthening regional financial cooperation and stand ready to take appropriate actions to safeguard macroeconomic and financial stability and
    reinforce ASEAN’s economic resilience."
  • The ministers "expressed concerns on the continued tensions in the Middle East and its implications for rising geopolitical risks, global trade uncertainties, and disruptions to energy markets and supply chains that may increase volatility in inflation, financial markets, and capital flows."
  • Indeed, the Australian Institute of International Affairs think tank notes the Iran conflict "should be read in Southeast Asia not as a distant war with indirect consequences, but as a recurring political-economic shock that reveals an old regional condition: ASEAN has long pursued industrial growth, urban modernisation, and export expansion within an energy order it does not fully control. "

Historical bullets

OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline

Mar-11 11:26
  • EUR/USD: Mar12 $1.1500(E1.2bln), $1.1650(E1.6bln); Mar13 $1.1670(E1.8bln); Mar16 $1.1600(E1.1bln)
  • USD/JPY: Mar13 Y150.00($1.4bln); Mar16 Y156.00($1.3bln)
  • AUD/USD: Mar12 $0.6975(A$1.1bln)

MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +3.2% SA THRU MAR 06 WK

Mar-11 11:00
  • MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +3.2% SA THRU MAR 06 WK

OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle In EURUSD Points South

Mar-11 10:54
  • In FX, the move higher in EURUSD is - for now - considered corrective. A bear cycle is in play and Monday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.1491, the Nov 21 ‘25 low. Note that MA studies highlight a bearish cross - if confirmed this would signal a medium-term bearish development. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1718, the 20-day EMA.
  • The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective - for now. A resump[tion of weakness would signal scope for a move towards 1.3212, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 4 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull cycle. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3575, the Feb 26 high.
  • The trend set-up in USDJPY is bullish. Resistance at 157.76, the Feb 9 high, has been cleared. The clear breach of this level opens 159.45, the Jan 14 high and a key hurdle for bulls. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 155.94, the 50-day EMA.