EU REAL ESTATE: Aroundtown: 1H25 Results (ARNDTN; NR/BBB/NR)
Neutral. Results in line with expectations. Company is preparing to push for more growth and has been actively rotating its portfolio. CFO to step down.
- Net Rental Income €591m +3% lfl.
- Adj EBITDA €500.6 flat.
- Reported ICR 4.2x improved by 0.2x. (by S&P definitions would expect low 2s)
- LTV 40% ex Hybrids or 58% with. In both cases 2% lower vs Year End.
- Vacancy of 7.5% overall. Offices (12.7%) and Retail (13.5%) remain high but the company has reduced offices from 44% to 38% of the portfolio while growing Residential and Hotels.
- LFL Rental growth showing that the Office sector is still struggling with only 1.5% growth but Hotels 4.2% and Residential 4.0% are healthy.
- Liquidity of €3.4bn – which they state will put them in a position to benefit from future growth while keeping within covenants.
- Investment property €24.8bn with positive revaluation of €383m vs a loss of €593m in 1H 24.
- Was cut to BBB Stable by S&P in April on a lack of progress in disposals. The company is showing €594m of property held for sale currently in line with S&P expectations.
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Historical bullets
USD: Extending gains as Europe joins the session
- Going into the Cash Govie Open, the Dollar was mostly mixed against G10s, the SEK was up a tiny 0.10%, and at the other end of the spectrum, the Kiwi was down just 0.13%.
- Since the Govie open and as Europe comes in, the Dollar is seeing a broader base bid as Desks take in the Overnight Tariff news.
- It's a new high intraday high for the Greenback against the GBP, EUR, CAD, ZAR, TWD, AUD, SEK, NOK, SGD, CZK, and JPY, to put the dollar in the green across G10s, and most Majors, only the KRW is holding on a tiny gain.
- The closest Technical is in the Pound with supports seen at 1.3416/1.3365 Intraday low / Low Jul 16 and a bear trigger for Cable.
GOLD TECHS: Short-Term Weakness Considered Corrective
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16
- RES 1: $3439.0 - High Jul 23
- PRICE: 3340.3 @ 07:25 BST Jul 28
- SUP 1: $3323.2 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $3282.8/3248.7 - Low Jul 9 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. Resistance at $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, has recently been cleared. A continuation higher would open $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An initial firm support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.
BRENT TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $68.97 @ 07:12 BST Jul 28
- SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30
- SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
The trend set-up in Brent futures is unchanged and a bearish theme remains present. The sell-off on Jun 23 continues to signal scope for further weakness. The contract has pierced support at the 50-day EMA and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has also been pierced. A resumption of the bear leg would expose $61.39, May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci point.
