EM LATAM CREDIT: Argentina March Industrial Production and Construction Data

• WTI has returned to losses after the White House Press Secretary confirmed imposition of 104% tariffs on Chinese imports, offsetting concerns of a shutdown on the Keystone pipeline.
• WTI May 25 is down by 2.3% at $59.3/bbl.
• A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact following the recent impulsive sell-off. The move down has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, with sights on $57.79 next, a Fibonacci projection.
• Meanwhile, spot gold has erased earlier gains amid the renewed tariff threat, with the yellow metal currently unchanged at $2,983/oz.
• The trend condition in gold remains bullish and the recent pullback from record highs appears to be corrective. The next key support to watch lies at $2,946.9, the 50-day EMA. The bull trigger is $3,167.8, the Apr 3 high.
• Copper has also erased earlier gains as fears of a prolonged US-China trade spat mount, with the red metal now 1.3% lower on the session at $413/lb.
• Trade war fears rose as USTR Greer stated that tariff exemptions will not come through in the near-term, coming on top of concerns over a prolonged trade spat between the US and China.
• Copper has now fallen by almost 15% since last week’s tariff announcements, highlighting an acceleration of the current bear cycle.
• Key support at $403.85, the Jan 2 low, has been pierced. A clear break would strengthen a bearish theme and open $392.10, the Aug 7 ‘24 low.

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 162.37/164.19 High Apr 7 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 160.37 @ 16:31 GMT Apr 8 
• SUP 1: 158.30 Low Apr 7   
• SUP 2: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4  
• SUP 4: 154.80 Low Low Feb 28  

EURJPY is trading in a volatile manner. The latest pullback still appears corrective, and the strong rally off Monday’s low reinforces this theme. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.30, Monday’s low. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, the cross has traded through the 20-day EMA. A continuation higher would expose 164.19, the Mar 18 high and the bull trigger.

• RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3   
• RES 3: 150.33/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 149.00 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 148.18 Low Mar 20 
• PRICE: 146.99 @ 16:30 BST Apr 8
• SUP 1: 144.56 Low Apr 4  
• SUP 2: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
• SUP 3: 143.43 Low Oct 2 ‘24
• SUP 4: 142.95 1.00 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing

USDJPY maintains a bearish tone following last week’s sharp sell-off and the latest recovery is - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the downtrend and a break of Friday’s 144.56 low would signal scope for an extension towards 144.13, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 149.00, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 150.33.