IRAN: Araghchi May Visit Pakistan on Return From China: Lebanese Media

• RES 4: 6903.00 High Mar 10   
• RES 3: 6769.31 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 6748.00 High Mar 23
• RES 1: 6650.03/6667.00 20-day EMA / High Apr 6     
• PRICE: 6622.00 @ 14:37 BST Apr 7
• SUP 1: 6503.75/6353.25 Low Apr 2 / Low Mar 31 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 6316.61 3.236 proj of the Feb 11 - 17 - 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 6300.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 6284.20 3.382 proj of the Feb 11 - 17 - 25 price swing 

A strong rally in S&P E-Minis last week highlights the start of a corrective phase. Note that a correction is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6650.03 the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this average would signal potential for an extension towards 6769.31, the 50-day EMA and a key area of resistance. The bear trigger has been defined at 6753.25, the Mar 31 low.

A better set of February core durable goods readings was offset by downward revisions to January's data, but the overall near-term outlook for equipment investment remains solid.

• Headline durable orders remained volatile, dropping 1.4% M/M (consensus -1.2%), but this was driven by a 29% drop in nondefense aircraft/parts (poor new orders reported by Boeing had been anticipated, as reflected in the consensus). Prior was revised down from flat to -0.5%.
• Given the usual volatility, more attention should be paid to core measures. Ex-transport durable orders were a little better than expected (0.8% vs 0.5% consensus) though again there was a slight lower revision (0.3% prior vs 0.4%). More importantly, core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) picked up to 0.6% M/M from 0.5%. However the downward revision here was significant: -0.4% (vs +0.1% initially reported), meaning that overall this report can be deemed a "miss".
• The strong 0.9% M/M core capital goods shipment reading (0.9% after an upwardly revised 0.0% in Jan) should underpin GDP equipment investment estimates for the current quarter, though the setback in January's core orders (post-June 2025 low) could hinder some optimism about upcoming months.
• Nonetheless run rates of core orders remain robust: 6.1% 3M/3M annualized and 5.1% Y/Y in January; not quite the double-digits seen in late 2025 but strong enough to see the Atlanta Fed's GDP nowcast eye around 14% Q/Q SAAR annualized equipment investment in Q1; meanwhile the ISM Manufacturing index and regional Fed prints remained robust through March despite the onset of war.
• Overall business equipment manufacturing is accelerating (per previously-released IP data) but we take particular note of tech durables orders: computers/electronics orders are growing at a 19% annualized pace as of January, the highest since 2017. 

Tehran Times via X: "Iran has closed all diplomatic and indirect channels of communication with the United States".

"Any and all message exchanges have also been suspended."