US PREVIEW: April ISM Manufacturing Expected To See Stronger Activity And Prices

• WTI dipped into losses on the day with the plunge in US hours coming after headlines quoted Iran’s President Pezeshkian that Iran is prepared to end the war if they receive guarantees. This added to earlier pressure after a WSJ report suggesting a US withdrawal leaving the Strait of Hormuz still closed.
• WTI May 26 is down 0.6% at $102.2/bbl.
• The Pezeshkian comments largely repeat the current Iranian negotiating position. Pezeshkian also appears to have limited power in the Iranian government.
• Trump has hinted repeatedly today that he could end US military involvement in Iran with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. He has decided that the US should achieve its main goals of crippling Iran's navy and missile stockpiles, and wind down current hostilities.
• A bull wave in WTI futures remains intact, with sights on $113.41, the Mar 9 high and bull trigger.
• On the downside, a key support zone to monitor is the area between $90.83 - $79.53, the 20- and 50-day EMA values.
• Meanwhile, precious metals have rebounded amid the more buoyant risk backdrop, reflected in the rally in major equity benchmarks and weakening of the US dollar.
• Spot gold has risen by 3.5% to $4,667/oz, while silver is up by 7.0% at $75.0/oz.
• From a technical perspective, gold remains in consolidation mode. Key near-term resistance is at $4,801.1, the 50-day EMA. For bears, a resumption of the bear leg would open $3,945.2, a Fibonacci projection.

• RES 4: 186.87 High Jan 23 and a key M/T resistance  
• RES 3: 186.36 High Feb 9
• RES 2: 185.05 76.4% retracement of the Feb 9 - 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 184.77 High Feb 25 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 183.28 @ 17:15 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 182.59/181.87 Low Mar 30 / 16 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: 180.81 Low Feb 12 and a reversal trigger 
• SUP 3: 180.10 Low Dec 5 ‘25
• SUP 4: 179.30 23.6% of the Feb 28 ‘25 - Jan 23 bull cycle 

EURJPY has pulled back from its most recent highs. The cross is once again trading below the base of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low, currently at 184.36. The breach continues to highlight a stronger reversal threat and signals scope for a test of the next key support at 180.81, the Feb 12 low. Resistance to watch is 184.77, the Feb 25 high. A clear break of it would instead signal a reversal.     

• Risk sentiment remained positive late Tuesday, stocks rebounding of this morning's appr 9 month lows after wires rehashed comments from Iran's president regarding terms to end war "must guarantee people's security, interests".
• Markets were wary of taking at face value Trump hinting repeatedly that he could end US military involvement in Iran even with the Strait of Hormuz still closed.
• Additional non-geopolitical support was partially driven by the reversal to dovish from hawkish in projected rate moves.
• Currently, Nasdaq outperforms at +3.5%, SPX eminis +2.45%, the DJIA +2.2%.
• IT sector shares continued to lead advances with the following up 7-10%: ON Semiconductor, Monolithic Power Systems, Sandisk Corp and Microchip Technology Inc.
• Oil and gas shares led declines as crude prices reversed course, WTI fell below $100/bbl briefly from nearly $107/bbl overnight, the following down 3-4.5%: EOG Resources, APA, Devon Energy, ONEOK, Occidental Petroleum Corp, Coterra Energy and Chevron Corp.