RBA: Appointment: Brad Jones as Assistant Governor, Financial System Group

The CNY fix has printed modestly stronger. The market expected the USD/CNY fix at 6.6781, while the actual print came in at 6.6756. This is a downside surprise, in USD/CNY terms, of -25pips.

• The fixing bias was very modest last week, with a cumulative downside surprise of just -11pips, i.e. nearly back to neutral. Today's -25pip surprise is the largest since the 13th of May, although still small from a longer term historical stand point.
• USD/CNH remains sub 6.6900, after decisively breaking below 6.7000 on Friday. Today's fix is unlikely to shift the narrative a great deal.
• CNH is benefiting from a broadly weaker USD backdrop, and hopes that the worst of the downside growth momentum is close to being behind us, particularly as Shanghai pushes ahead with re-opening plans.
• This comes after downgrades to the growth outlook last week from a number of sell-side analysts for 2022, note also J.P. Morgan's China forecast revision index fell by nearly 0.50%, the steepest drop since the start of March.
• In TWI terms the CNY basket still fell 0.39% last week, although this was down from the previous week's fall of 1.39%.

The result of Australian federal election removed a key political risk from the regional picture, as the prospect of a hung parliament receded, with Labor set to form the next administration. Broader recovery in market sentiment has sapped strength from core FI space, with U.S. e-mini futures climbing at the start to the new week.

• Selling pressure hits T-Notes, with the risk switch flicked to on. TYM2 changes hands -0-06 at 119-30 as we type, with Eurodollar futures running 0.5-3.0 ticks lower through the reds. Cash Tsy yields trade 2.3-3.0bp higher across the curve, with marginal flattening evident.
• JGB futures are giving away opening gains, JBM2 trades at 149.81 at typing, 3 ticks above previous settlement. The yield curve has flattened in cash Tokyo trade, as the super-long end leads gains.
• In Australia, YM last sits +3.0 & XM +3.5, both creeping lower. Bills last seen unch. to +5 ticks through the reds. Cash ACGB yields sit 1.8-4.3bp lower across a flattened curve. RBA's Kent suggested that models estimate the neutral level of cash rate around 2-3%, but "it's very uncertain, changes over time."

Independent candidate Chadchart Sittipunt is expected to become Bangkok Governor, pending the official confirmation of election results by the Election Commission.

• Preliminary results showed Chadchart well ahead of his rivals. Democratic Party's Suchatvee Suwansawat came second, followed by Move Forward candidate Wiroj Lakkhnaadisorn.
• Chadchart previously served as Transport Minister in the Pheu Thai Party administration before the coup d'etat led by current Prime Minister Prayuth.
• The presumptive winner called on his rivals to move over past conflicts and pledged to cooperate with councillors from all parties.
• Political scientist Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket told the Bangkok Post that "candidates from the government's opposing camps won more votes than those who supported the government at a ratio of 65% to 35%."