COAL: API 2 July Coal Prices Fall to Multi-Week Low
API 2 coal prices for July delivery are currently trading at the lowest since 30 April, weighed on by seasonally lower demand, sufficient supplies, high renewables output and pressure from European gas prices.
- Rotterdam Coal JUL 24 down 0.8% at 107.5 USD/MT
- Rhine river water levels at the Kaub measuring point rose to 3.51m on Monday, after seeing mostly steady declined since early June, WSA data showed, cited by Bloomberg. Kaub levels rose from 3.45m as of Sunday night.
- Thermal coal imports into NW Europe are on track to rise to 1.89mn tons in June, up from 1.57m in May but below June 2023 levels of 2.53m tons according to DBX estimated.
- Coal stocks at four ARA terminals were at 4.8mn tons, down by 1.5mn tons on the year, Montel estimates showed.
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JGB TECHS: (M4) Just Above Key Support
- RES 3: 148.74 - High Jul 24
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger
- RES 1: 145.95 - High Mar 25 1
- PRICE: 143.64 @ 16:17 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 143.47 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 143.44 - Low Oct 31 (cont) and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 141.65 - 1.00 proj of Mar 22 - Nov 1 ‘23 - Jan 15 price swing
A bear trend in JGB futures persists, erasing the corrective bounce in recent weeks. The contract for now is trading just above key support and bear trigger at 143.44, the Nov 1 low. A stronger reversal higher is required to signal the end of the recent downward phase. Key resistance is at 145.95, the Mar 28 high. A break would signal scope for a climb towards the bull trigger at 147.74, the mid-January high.
USDCAD TECHS: Continues To Find Support
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 1: 1.3748/85 61.8% of the Apr 16 - Mar 16 bear leg / High Apr 30
- PRICE: 1.3733 @ 16:53 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 1.3669/1.3590 20-day EMA / Low May 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
USDCAD erased the Thursday gains into the close, however the bullish trend condition remains intact above the 1.669 20-day EMA and 1.3590 bull trigger. Recently, key supports at 1.3642, the 50-day EMA, and 1.3610, the May 3 low, have been pierced. But a clear break of both levels is needed to threaten the bullish theme and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
- RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
- RES 1: 0.6714 High May 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6626 @ 16:50 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 0.6592 Low May 24
- SUP 2: 0.6576 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6465/6407 Low May 1 / Low Apr 22
- SUP 4: 0.6363 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
AUDUSD traded lower this week. The latest pullback appears to be a correction and a bullish condition remains intact following recent gains. The pair has recently breached a key short-term hurdle at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high. The break strengthens a bullish theme and a resumption of gains would open 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.6576, the 50-day EMA.
