US DATA: Another Impressively Healthy Jobless Claims Report

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Weekly ADP private sector employment showed little sign of the US-Israel-Iran war impeding job creation with March increasingly covered. It pushed to a monthly equivalent of >100k jobs growth for the first time since Jan 2025 to shift away from some softer readings at the turn of the year. Whilst the ADP data are also prone to revisions, they currently offer a notably less volatile profile than that seen in BLS payrolls through Q1. 

• Weekly ADP employment increased by an average 26k in the four weeks to Mar 21 after 15.25k to Mar 14 (filled in today after last week’s full month update) and an unrevised 10k to Mar 7.
• That’s the strongest weekly figure since the new series started in July 2025 whilst the 104k monthly equivalent was last stronger in the Jan 2025 full monthly release.
• The series has limited correlation with BLS private payrolls on a month-to-month basis although that's recently more down to volatility in BLS data, especially so in Q1.
• Private payrolls growth swung from 180k in Jan to -129k in Feb to 186k in Mar (3-mth av 79k) compared to ADP seeing 11k in Jan, 66k in Feb and 62k in Mar (3-mth av 46k) in latest vintages.