AMERICAS OIL: Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Rises
US OIL: September 26 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Rises
WTI crude markets are on track for a strong weekly gain for the first time since early August. A weaker dollar has supported crude’s gains today, alongside continued focus on Russian supply risks. Yesterday’s upward revision to US GDP for the second quarter was also supportive of sentiment. Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high. A clear break of it would suggest potential for a stronger recovery, towards key short-term resistance at $68.43, the Jul 30 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $60.85, Aug 13 low.
- EU leaders have been clear in their message to Russia that a NATO alliance would be ready to respond to repeated violations of European airspace by Russia, predominantly with drones. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered an urgent meeting of top military commanders for an unusual meeting early next week.
- Ukrainian drones stuck the Afipsky refinery overnight on Sep. 26 as infrastructure strike continue, Kyiv Independent said.
- Indian official told Trump a significant reduction in oil imports from Russi would require purchases from sanctioned supplies Iran and Venezuela instead, Bloomberg said.
- A short time after PM Benjamin Netanyahu finishes his address to the UNGA, US President Donald Trump says that "It looks like we'll have a Gaza deal".
- Oil traders see OPEC+ agreeing to more production in November, as the group strives to reclaim global market share, Bloomberg reported.
- OPEC+ has delivered about three quarters of the extra oil output it targeted since April, and the level may fall closer to half later this year as producers hit capacity limits, according to Reuters.
- Near term crude options switched to a call skew in late trading yesterday following the latest rally in front month crude prices.
- WTI futures are trading at this week’s highs. Despite recent gains, the trend condition remains bearish and the recovery is considered corrective - for now. Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high. A clear break of it would suggest potential for a stronger recovery, towards key short-term resistance at $68.43, the Jul 30 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $60.85, Aug 13 low.
- Diesel cracks weakened after rallying yesterday to the highest since March 2024 on a partial Russian diesel export ban while gasoline cracks regained some lost ground as demand holds steady against year-ago levels.
- WTI Nov futures were up 1.1% at $65.72
- WTI Dec futures were up 1.1% at $65.14
- RBOB Oct futures were up 1.7% at $2.04
- ULSD Oct futures were up 0.1% at $2.43
- US gasoline crack up 0.8$/bbl at 17.79$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.4$/bbl at 35.77/bbl
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USDJPY TECHS: In A Range
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 148.78/149.12 High Aug 22 / 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg
- PRICE: 147.86 @ 15:58 BST Aug 27
- SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
- SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
- SUP 3: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
- SUP 4: 144.91 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low
USDJPY is trading inside a range and a bear threat remains present. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 145.40, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg. Key resistance is far off at 150.92, the Aug 1 high.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 5Y Sale
- -5,000 FVZ5 109-14, sell through 109-14.25 post time bid at 1418:10ET, DV01 $223,000.
- The 5Y contract trades 109-14 last (+4.25)
COMMODITIES: Crude Finds Support, Gold Unchanged, Copper Declines
- Oil prices found support on Wednesday, supported by a slightly larger than expected US crude stock draw.
- A breakdown in E3 talks with Iran also added support earlier in the session, along with growing threats from the EU to further sanctions on Russia – though its options remain limited.
- WTI Oct 25 is up by 1.4% at $64.2/bbl.
- A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest round of short-term gains appear corrective - for now.
- Initial support is at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, which has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. Initial resistance to watch is at $66.56, the Aug 4 high.
- Elsewhere, spot gold is broadly unchanged on the session around $3,395/oz, after rallying off session lows following the IAEA-Iran headlines that flagged that monitors have not yet returned to damaged Iranian sites. Reports also suggested that Iran isn’t providing adequate access to inspectors.
- The medium-term trend condition for gold remains bullish, with initial resistance seen at $3,409.2, the Aug 8 high, followed by $3,439.0, the Aug 23 high.
- Meanwhile, copper has fallen by 0.9% to $449/lb today.
- Copper futures are in consolidation mode, with initial resistance at $488.17, the 50-day EMA. On the downside, a continuation lower would signal scope for a test of key support at $418.85, the Apr 7 low.
