AMERICAS OIL: Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Lower

US OIL: September 19 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Lower   

WTI crude is slightly lower today amid oversupply concerns, while the EU’s 19th sanctions package was announced today in line with expectations. Heavier selling could retest $57.71, the May 30 low.

• The EU’s 19th sanctions package has been adopted by the EC with a focus on a faster phase out of Russian LNG, expanded sanctions on the shadow fleet and sanctions on refineries using Russian oil in third countries.
• Focus remains on US President Trump's calls for nations to stop buying Russian oil to help end the conflict in Ukraine. Trump said the conflict would end "if the price of oil comes down," as he continues to call for countries to stop buying Russian fuel, Bloomberg said
• Ukraine strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are supportive after strikes were reported at two refineries yesterday. Russian runs have fallen below 5mb/d and the lowest since April 2022, JPMorgan said.
• China appears unlikely to sustain another strong wave of crude stockpiling in the near term and growth looks set to plateau, Vortexa said.
• The price of Russian Urals crude for delivery to India is rising despite growing sanctions risks as Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure prompts concerns about supply, Reuters reports.
• Citi analysts forecast Brent crude prices falling to $60/b by year-end and averaging $62/b over Q2-Q4 2026, citing OPEC+ production increases and China’s stockpiling, Reuters reported.
• The Baker Hughes rig count was up 3 w/w at 542, the highest since July 25. Oil rigs were up 2 w/w to 418, down 66 y/y. Canadian rigs were up 3 w/w to 189, down 29 y/y.
• The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.71, the May 30 low.
• Pemex Deer Park refinery had a compressor trip and flaring at its distillation unit 1 on Wednesday local time, according to a filing submitted to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality
• Cracks are lower today with product price declines outpacing crude’s decline.
  • WTI Oct futures were down 1.4% at $62.68
  • WTI Nov futures were down 1.3% at $62.40
  • RBOB Oct futures were down 2% at $1.97
  • ULSD Oct futures were down 1.7% at $2.30
  • US gasoline crack down 1$/bbl at 20.08$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down 1$/bbl at 33.90/bbl