AMERICAS OIL: Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Lower
Sep-05 18:34
US OIL: September 5 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Lower
Crude has fallen further today and is on track for a net decline on the week amid concerns that this weekend's OPEC+ meeting could result in further supply.
- US total rigs 537 as of Sep 5, oil rigs up 2 to 414. Canadian rigs rose by 6 to 181; oil rigs were up 3 to 123.
- Bloomberg report that Saudi Arabia wants to consider reviving another tranche of 1.66m b/d of halted supplies at the Sunday meeting.
- Russia’s Deputy PM Novak said that OPEC+ is not currently discussing a hike and that OPEC+ will look at the situation as a whole before making a decision at the meeting on Sunday.
- Bloomberg’s Javier Blas said a supply increase seems more likely to be approved when the full OPEC group meets in October/November, rather than on Sunday.
- President Donald Trump yesterday warned of consequences for Russia if President Vladimir Putin doesn't agree to a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He also pushed European leaders to stop purchases of Russian oil.
- Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said European and US teams are set to meet regarding sanctions on Russia within days.
- The build in China oil inventories will slow in Q4 pushing the oil market into a sizeable surplus and likely putting downward pressure on prices, according to ANZ cited by Bloomberg.
- Crude Dec25-Dec26 backwardation continues to soften today in line with the bearish pressure on front month prices ahead of the OPEC+ 8 meeting on Sep.7.
- Irving Oil's 320kb/d Saint John refinery, Canada’s largest, is scheduled to begin a 30-day turnaround later this month, according to a company statement cited by Reuters.
- Cracks are slightly lower today but have seen gains through the week on various reports of refinery disruption/maintenance, including at Dangote and Pernis.
- WTI Oct futures were down 2.5% at $61.87
- WTI Nov futures were down 2.5% at $61.46
- RBOB Oct futures were down 2.2% at $1.96
- ULSD Oct futures were down 1.8% at $2.29
- US gasoline crack down 0.4$/bbl at 20.63$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.3$/bbl at 34.21/bbl
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USDJPY TECHS: Cracks Support
Aug-06 18:30
- RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19
- RES 3: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 1: 150.92 High Aug 1
- PRICE: 147.26 @ 16:11 BST Aug 6
- SUP 1: 146.67 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 2: 146.62 Low Aug 5
- SUP 3: 146.60 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 145.86 Low Jul 24
USDJPY reversed sharply from Friday’s intraday high and this is allowing a short-term overbought condition to unwind. While the pullback in prices Friday may have been corrective, the break and close below 147.57, the 20-day EMA, is a concern. A clear break of this support zone would undermine the recent bull theme. A break of last week’s 150.92 high would resume the uptrend.
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: IT & Consumer Sector Shares Outperform
Aug-06 18:30
- Stocks remain firm late Wednesday, fully recovering from the prior session's sell-off, tech-heavy Nasdaq outperforming. Currently, the DJIA trades up 150.26 points (0.34%) at 44263.27, S&P E-Minis up 48.75 points (0.77%) at 6373.75, Nasdaq up 245.7 points (1.2%) at 21162.15.
- Stocks started to pare losses after White House officials said Apple will announce a commitment to invest another $100B on US manufacturing today. Speculation over whether Pres Trump will announce new Russia sanctions or nominees for Fed governor or BLS head, however, tethered risk appetites somewhat.
- A mix of IT, Consumer Staples and Discretionary sector shares continued to lead gainers in the second half: Arista Networks +17.91%, Assurant +11.94%, Match Group +10.17%, Apple +5.75%, Walmart +4.13%, Target +3.69%, Amazon +3.64%, McDonald's +3.42%, Tesla +3.34%, Kroger +2.94%, Ross Stores +2.85% and Costco Wholesale +2.82%.
- A couple notable IT exceptions bucking the move: Super Micro Computer -19.24% after earning outlook disappoints, while Advanced Micro Devices declined -5.81%.
- Leading decliners included Health Care, Materials and Energy sector shares: NRG Energy -14.01%, Mosaic -12.14%, Bio-Techne -10.34%, Charles River Laboratories -8.10%, Rockwell Automation -7.47%, International Flavors & Fragrances -6.54%, Paramount Global -6.17%, Enphase Energy -5.30%, Amgen -5.16% and LyondellBasell Industries -5.06%.
- Companies expected to announce earnings after today's close include: Corteva, McKesson Corp, Occidental Petroleum, AIG, DoorDash, Fortinet, AppLovin, Lyft, Dutch Bros, Airbnb Inc, Zillow Group, Duolingo, MetLife, APA and DraftKings Inc.
US: Jobs Report Appears To Resonate w/Voters - Morning Consult
Aug-06 18:13
Morning Consult notes: “Economic buzz worsens: Friday’s disappointing jobs report, with major downward revisions to the data from May and June, appears to be resonating with Americans. By a 21-point margin, voters were more likely to say they’d heard something negative than positive about the economy in the past week — the largest gap since June.”
- Morning Consult adds: “Similarly, Friday’s jobs report appears to be undermining Americans’ trust in the president's stewardship of the economy. Voters are now 6 points more likely to disapprove than approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, his worst numbers since April.”
- Semafor reports: “Growth and inflation in the country have largely weathered its unpredictable tariffs and economic policies, but essential costs on housing, health care, and education are making up an ever-bigger share of household spending, credit card debt is at an all-time high, and even some higher earners are falling behind on their loan payments.”
Figure 1: US Consumer Confidence
Source: Semafor, Conference Board
