BUNDS: ALL EYES on US CPI
Jul-13 06:22
- Bund unwinds some of the decent rallies seen this week and especially yesterday.
- German ZEW, not usually a market mover did set out the tone yesterday, given the big miss versus estimates.
- Recession is also at the forefront, with core Bond bid on FTQ.
- Bund sees support moving up to 152.32 followed by 151.67. Resistance comes at 153.00, followed by yesterday's high at 153.48 (was the highest print since 30th May).
- ALL EYES on the US CPI. Out of Europe, French and Spanish CPI will be final reading, also of note will be the EU IP.
- SUPPLY: German EU1.5bn 30yr (Equates to 7.7k Buxl), and heavy Italian supply for today, Italy 2025 (equates to 38k short BTP), Italy 2029 and 2038 (equates to 28k combined BTP). and US $19bn 30yr.
- EARNINGS: Delta (pre market)
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FINLAND AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer Wednesday
Jun-13 06:17
Finland will come to the market on Wednesday to offer up to E1.0bln of the 20-year 0.50% Apr-43 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000517677).
UK DATA: Test and trace pulls UK monthly GDP into negative territory
Jun-13 06:14
- Services driving GDP lower here (although manufacturing actually fell more).
- The ONS is citing the significant reduction in Test and Trace pulling human health and social work down 5.6%M/M, which is the biggest factor pulling the numbers lower.
- Without the reduction in Test and Trace, services and overall GDP would would have both been +0.1%M/M.
- So this is a disappointing print - but possibly not quite as disappointing as it would appear at first glance. Although at least some of this reduction in Test and Trace activity should have been factored into sell-side forecasts.
- GBPUSD at its low of the day, but not really a big move. And given the underlying details wouldn't expect huge moves later when SONIA opens either.
AUDUSD TECHS: Starts The Week On A Softer Note
Jun-13 06:01
- RES 4: 0.7465 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.7400 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.7171/7283 50-day EMA / High Jun 3 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.7027 @ 07:00 BST Jun 13
- SUP 1: 0.7001 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.6950 Low May 18
- SUP 3: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
AUDUSD has traded lower today resulting in an extended break of the 50-day EMA. Last week’s sell-off threatens the recent bull cycle. Price action has defined a key short-term resistance at 0.7283, Jun 3 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish outlook. An extension lower would expose support at 0.6950, May 18 low ahead of the bear trigger at 0.6829, May 12 low. A breach of this level would resume the broader downtrend.
