ARS: ALDAR: new deal priced

Downside pressure on Treasuries appears to have abated somewhat, adding to the downside pressure on the USD, which results in GBP/USD printing a new daily high and coming within range of 1.2811, the Friday payrolls-triggered high.

• The move coincides with fresh pressure on EUR/GBP, as the cross touches a low of 0.8271 to again trouble the twice-tested support from last week.
• We have noted across the past few weeks a clear area of demand in the cross, layered between 0.8260-87 that coincides with the range-defining support around the 0.8300 handle. Note that this equates to 1.21 in GBP/EUR - a psychological resistance level that often draws attention, and has not been meaningfully broken since 2016 and the year of the Brexit referendum.

Congressional leaders released the final 1813-page draft text of the must-pass annual Pentagon funding bill – the National Defense Authorization Act – teeing up a vote in the House this week.

• The final NDAA text fails to include a package of China-related bills that “would have essentially codified a Biden administration executive order restricting US investment in certain high-tech sectors in China," per Semafor.
• Semafor notes that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), "who has been working for months to settle an internal Republican disagreement over the policy, is expected to attempt to attach [the China package] to the year-end continuing resolution — but that may prove difficult."
• Punchbowl News reports: “Johnson’s first challenge is getting the [NDAA] measure through the Rules Committee, which is controlled by hardline conservatives from the House Freedom Caucus.”
• If the Freedom Caucus opposes the bill, Johnson will have to move the bill under suspension of rules, requiring a two-thirds majority to clear the chamber. This NDAA is highly likely to pass despite last-minute disputes over partisan Republican policy riders, including language blocking IVF expansion for military families.   
• Government funding expires in 11 days. Johnson is expected to seek a short-term Continuing Resolution to extend government funding into mid- to late-March. A longer extension would incur major cuts to defense and non-defense spending under the terms of the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act - the bill negotiated by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Biden to raise the debt ceiling. 

Large Bank block trade, not spread related, suggest buyer:

• CAZ4 12k at 146.90.