ASIA STOCKS: AI /Tech Weighs on Kospi, JCI Struggles on Moody's Warning

Oil has faced further downward pressure today after US data showed large product inventory builds and President Trump announced Venezuela will ship “between 30 and 50 MILLION barrels of High Quality Sanctioned Oil” to the US. Both events added to ongoing concerns over a global supply glut pushing prices down further after Tuesday’s 2% decline. In addition, the discussion of security guarantees Tuesday may have brought a Ukraine deal closer.

• WTI is down 1.6% today to $56.24 after falling to $55.76 following Trump’s Truth Social post but holding above initial support at $54.89. Brent is 1.1% lower at $60.02 with the break below $60 short-lived. While technicals signal a dominant downtrend, it is holding above support at $58.53.
• Chevron & Quantum are set to bid for Lukoil’s assets after US imposed sanctions on Russia’s oil majors, according to the FT.
• Without a timeframe it is difficult to understand how Venezuela will be able to send 30-50mn barrels of oil to the US. The IEA reported that it produced only 860 kbd in November 2025 down from around 1mbd earlier.
• It is reported that Chevron, who still has operations in Venezuela, has sent 11 tankers to begin transporting oil to the US. Gulf refineries are geared to refine heavy, sour crude of the type that Venezuela produces.
• Bloomberg reported that there was a 2.8mn barrel US oil inventory drawdown last week, according to people familiar with the API data. Gasoline inventories rose 4.4mn and distillate 4.9mn. The official EIA data is out Wednesday.
• Later on Wednesday US December ADP employment, November JOLTS job openings, December ISM services and final October orders print. The Fed’s Bowman speaks on banking regulation. In Europe, preliminary December euro area CPI and November German unemployment & retail sales are released. 

Outside of AUD gains, the price action in the G10 has been very muted so far today. The USD BBDXY index sits little changed near 1205.10 in latest dealings. The A$ sits up 0.35% to 0.6760/65, fresh highs back to 2024. We saw a brief dip to 0.6717 post a slightly softer Nov CPI read, but this was well supported. We are just above the Oct 11 2024 high of 0.6759, with the 0.6800 region now likely to come into focus. AU rates, particularly at the front end, were also supported from a yield stand point. RBA tightening expectations for 2026 sit slightly firmer versus pre CPI levels. Outside of rate expectations, the metals commodity backdrop is also aiding the AUD, with iron ore gains notable today.  

• Shifts elsewhere in the G10 space are less than 0.1% at this stage. NZD/USD is little changed, last 0.5780/85, while USD/JPY is just under 156.60. EUR/USD is up a touch but still under 1.1700 at this stage.
• The AUD/NZD cross is trending towards 1.1700, fresh highs back to 2013. AUD/JPY is near 105.90, fresh highs back to mid 2024.
• We are seeing softer gold and silver trends so far today, but the BBG metals spot sub index is up 16% since late Nov lows. Iron ore is above $108.50/ton per the active SGX contract.
• Later on Wednesday US December ADP employment prints and is forecast to rise 50k after falling 32k in November. There are also November JOLTS job openings, December ISM services and final October orders. The Fed’s Bowman speaks on banking regulation.

After rallying on Tuesday as geopolitical risks drove safe haven flows, gold & silver are lower in Wednesday’s APAC session. Precious metals appear to be steadying ahead of this week’s US jobs data, which finishes with payrolls on Friday and is likely to influence Fed easing expectations. Also the discussion of security guarantees Tuesday may have brought a Ukraine deal closer. US yields are little changed while the US dollar is down slightly.

• Gold is down 0.6% to $4465.5/oz after falling to $4459.92. It approached the 26 December record high at $4549.92 on Tuesday, which is the bull trigger. Any sell off is still corrective for now.
• Silver is 1.9% lower at $79.78/oz, close to the intraday low. It rose to $82.754 early in trading below the 28 December record at $84.0075, which is also the bull trigger. It remains in an uptrend but is also in overbought territory.
• Precious metals will be watching this week’s US labour market data closely given OIS pricing seems unsure if there will be another Fed rate cut in Q1 with a full 25bp not priced in before June.
• Later on Wednesday US December ADP employment prints and is forecast to rise 50k after falling 32k in November. There are also November JOLTS job openings, December ISM services and final October orders. The Fed’s Bowman speaks on banking regulation.
• Equities are mixed with the S&P e-mini is slightly lower, the CSI is flat and Hang Seng down 1.0%. Oil continues to sell off with WTI -1.5% to $56.26/bbl. Copper is down 1.1%.